Thai flood will affect supply chain in 2012
HDD (hard disk drive) shortages, forced by damages from the flood, will result in a 3.8 million-unit shortfall in PC shipments in the first quarter of 2012, IHS reports.
Suzanne Deffree, Managing Editor, Online -- EDN, January 5, 2012
The flood that took place last year in Thailand will continue to affect this year’s electronics supply chain. IHS in December estimated that damages from the flood will result in a 3.8 million-unit shortfall in PC shipments in the first quarter of 2012 compared with the company’s previous forecast, which it issued in August. IHS now expects that global PC shipments will grow by 6.8% in 2012, down from the previous outlook of 9.5% growth.IHS estimates that worldwide PC shipments in the first quarter of 2012 will reach 84.2 million units, down from its earlier forecast of 88 million. The revised forecast calls for an 11.6% sequential decline from 95.3 million units in the fourth quarter of 2011, almost double the typical 6% sequential decline for the first quarter following the holiday season.
image: IstockphhotoThe first-quarter reduction has forced IHS to lower estimates for total PC unit shipments in 2012 to 376 million, compared with the company’s previous prediction of 399 million. The market-research company says that this result is partly due to a shortage of hard-disk drives, along with weakening demand due to other factors, such as the popularity of tablets. This year’s shipments of notebook PCs—a segment that the hard-drive shortage affects and that competes with tablets—should rise by 10.1%, down from the previous forecast of 13.8% growth.
“The PC supply chain says that it has sufficient hard-disk-drive inventory for the fourth quarter of 2011,” says Matthew Wilkins, senior principal analyst for compute platforms at the company. “However, those stockpiles will run out in the first quarter of 2012, impacting PC production during that period.”
IHS expects the hard-drive
supply situation to begin to
improve in the first quarter but
notes that it will take time to
replenish the electronics supply
chain. The overall hard-drive
supply will meet demand only
by the end of the third quarter
of 2012. Many drive makers
have moved production outside
Thailand to supplement supply.
PC shipments should rebound
from the shortage in the second
half of the year. With the added
production outside Thailand,
the market for hard-disk drives
could face an inventory surplus
by the end of 2012 after facilities
in the country return to full production.Talkback
