December 4, 1997

Why does this story sound familiar?

Don't become complacent. Don't let somewhat-good times lull you into putting off preparing for the future.

"Engineering shortage," read the headlines everywhere. It's hard to deny the truth of these headlines. Many credible reports circulate of hiring bonuses, aggressive help-wanted ads, employer frenzies at job and college fairs, and other, similar signs. It's unnecessary to prove the shortfall's existence using those dry statistics, which indicate a crisis both now and into the foreseeable future. We all know that these kinds of statistics can innocently or deliberately show whatever we wish to prove, and the foreseeable future is much shorter than anyone admits. But we hear enough stories to confirm that engineers, especially those with solid experience, are seeing good times.

In the back of my mind, however, I hear a skeptical voice tinged with cynicism. Hasn't the design community already heard this story several times in the last 20 years? The same story applies to other industries as well. A few years ago, there was a severe shortage of nurses, with a similar hiring hysteria by hospitals. Then, within a few years, the situation turned around, and there was an oversupply of nurses. Even the RAM shortage of a few years ago evaporated when much of it turned out to be due to just-in-case double-ordering.

Also, "shortage" is a relative term. A shortage exists but compared with what? Although much of today's apparent shortage is due to the impressive growth in technology applications and markets, dozens of companies fighting to get 20% of the same market also drive the shortage. These companies can't all be winners. And some of the demand is due to one-shot needs, such as the year-2000 software situation.

At some point, reality bites, and it can bite hard. Historically, the demand curve for engineers has been cyclical, superimposed on a rising base value. Students graduating and entering the profession largely determine the supply side, which is also cyclical. The cycles have somewhat different periods and are also out of phase with each other by four to five years, leading to wide swings in the resultant supply/demand ratio. And generating these swings takes little shift in that ratio's numerator or denominator. Because supply and demand usually maintain a delicate balance, inflection points and singularities are likely in both directions.

What should to-day's in-demand engineer do? Don't become complacent. Don't let somewhat-good times lull you into putting off preparing for the future. Even if you are working long and hard, take time to stop and think. Keep your skills sharp and your eyes open to what is happening around you, both at your current employer and elsewhere in the industry. Figure out where you fit and where you want to be. Most important, good employment times are also your opportunity to make important career advances, to obtain new experiences and skills, or to investigate other career options that put you on a different track.

The cynic in me says that this shortage is just an employer plot to stimulate supply, but the optimist in me says today's situation is great news. The realist in me says good times are good news, but they won't last forever, so it's wise to plan ahead and take advantage of the available options.

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