April 9, 1998

Immigration, yes. Shortage, no.

Michael C Markowitz, Editor in Chief

The economy's strength has made it more difficult to recruit and retain talented EEs, but there is no engineering shortage. The call to increase H1-B visas limits just looks like an attempt to limit engineering costs. 

I'm torn. I'd like to agree with Cypress president TJ Rodgers and the Information Technology Association of America (ITAA) that the United States needs more immigrants to overcome an increasingly severe shortage of engineers. As the grandson of immigrants, I'd like to welcome others, like my grandparents, who see America as a shining opportunity or as a savior from oppression or discrimination. I believe that among the things that made this country great were the ambition and diversity of its new arrivals. I look to new immigrants to energize, revitalize, and spur America on to bigger and better things.

My problem, however, is that an argument for increased immigration based on a mythical engineering shortage strains credibility. Granted, it's hard to hire good engineers these days, and raising the limit on H1-B visas would increase the supply of engineers. But is there an engineering shortage? The ITAA would certainly like you to believe there is. In fact, its "Executive Briefing of a Study on IT Workforce Shortages" aims to stifle debate: "A severe shortage of competent and skilled information technology workers exists. Debate among many from different perspectives will not change this reality. We must accept and take ownership of the challenges presented by these survey findings."

I'm not convinced. I doubt that a shortage exists, even though nearly every company I visit would like to hire more engineers. Maybe I'd be less skeptical if the ITAA study didn't qualify its conclusions before presenting them. As the report says, "Results that follow concerning IT vacancies represent estimates of the numbers of claimed [their italics] vacancies across about 104,000 US companies with 100 or more employees [based on responses to a telephone survey by 532 representatives from IT and non-IT companies with more than 100 employees]. These numbers may differ from the numbers of vacancies that would be filled promptly if qualified applicants were immediately available."

But it isn't the ITAA's qualifier alone that makes me a nonbeliever. Much of my skepticism results from my own experiences as an engineer. Graduating with an engineering degree, I was in high demand. As my job qualifications became stronger, however--from increased experience and earning an MBA--finding a job actually became more difficult. Why? Well, one significant factor is that stronger qualifications demand higher salaries.

My case is just one data point, though, so consider a few more. According to Norman Matloff, professor of computer science at the University of California--Davis, Mi-crosoft rejects 98 of every 100 applicants for software positions. Rodgers' own Cypress Semiconductor either doesn't track recruiting data for EEs or refuses to supply it. Seems to me, if we've got a shortage of engineers, companies like Microsoft would have to be much less selective and Rodgers' company would know, and be willing to discuss, how hard it is to recruit engineers.

Another data point comes from engineering salaries. According to the law of supply and demand, an engineering shortage should increase engineers' costs, and those higher costs should encourage more students to enter the profession. But, with the exception of a few specialized skills, engineering salaries aren't rising dramatically.

So I'm not convinced that raising the limit on H1-B visas is necessary. The economy's strength has certainly made it more difficult to recruit and retain talented EEs, but there is no engineering shortage. The call to increase H1-B limits just looks like an attempt to limit engineering costs.

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