WW semi revenue expected to grow 20% in 2010, Gartner says
Thanks to strong demand for PCs combined with DRAM prices that are on the rise, DRAM revenue is expected to grow more than 55% this year, the market research company said.
By Ann Steffora Mutschler, Contributing Editor -- EDN, February 25, 2010
Following what it said is “clear evidence” that the semiconductor industry is poised for strong growth this year, Stamford, Conn.-based market research company Gartner Inc. is now forecasting revenue for the worldwide semiconductor industry to reach $276 billion this year, a 19.9% increase from revenue of $231 billion last year.
Bryan Lewis, research VP at Gartner said in a statement, “While the semiconductor market declined 9.6% in 2009, sequential quarterly revenue growth was amazingly strong through the last three quarters of 2009.”
After the gloom early in the year, PC unit production growth turned out positive in 2009 and is expected to grow close to 20% this year, fueling strength in semiconductors, he explained.
“Given the sales momentum and earlier cutbacks in capital spending, semiconductor foundry and packaging utilization rates are approaching constraints and most regions and most applications are seeing increased orders. The key question now is will the recovery continue at its current rate or will we see a correction?” Lewis continued.
Gartner said it is closely tracking the balance of electronic system sales versus semiconductor sales and inventory in past downturns and the current one and stated that a minor correction in semiconductor sales is needed in the near future to rebalance chip sales with system sales.
While Q3 is generally the strongest quarter for semiconductor sales with sequential growth of 9% as system companies build product for back-to-school and the holiday season, Gartner's new semiconductor forecast shows a 7% rise in Q3 sales followed by a relatively flat Q4 that will better align semiconductor sales with system sales.
Further, Lewis said PCs and memory are the primary drivers for semiconductor revenue growth in 2010, and that rising DRAM prices combined with strong PC demand will lead to more than 55% DRAM revenue growth this year -making DRAM the fastest growing device type.
The semiconductor industry is expected to show continued growth through its forecast period in 2014, and is on track to surpass the $300 billion mark in 2012 when the market is forecast to total $304 billion, Gartner concluded.
