IC Insights ups ww IC market forecast to 27%
With a DRAM market expected to increase 74% this year, market researchers at IC Insights now believe that the worldwide IC market will jump 27% in 2010 to $253 billion and an additional 15% in 2011 to $290 billion.
By Ann Steffora Mutschler, Contributing Editor -- EDN, March 9, 2010
With a DRAM market expected to increase 74% this year, market researchers at IC Insights now believe that the worldwide IC market will jump 27% in 2010 to $253 billion – exceeding the previous high of $234 billion reached in 2007 – and an additional 15% in 2011 to $290 billion.
As a crosscheck to this forecast, IC Insights reminded that if the January DRAM market stayed flat for the next 11 months, the 2010/2009 DRAM market would still register 61% growth. Strong DRAM conditions should help support the 100%+ capital spending increases now budgeted by many of the DRAM manufacturers this year.
This 27% forecast is an upgrade to IC Insights' earlier worldwide IC market forecast, which called for 15% growth this year, and is almost entirely due to a revision in the IC market change expected for 1Q10/4Q09, the company noted. While a moderate seasonal decline in 1Q10/4Q09 IC sales was previously expected, the company now said that the 1Q10/4Q09 IC market will show a 3% increase.
Further, due to the depressed state of the Q1 2009 IC market, being the extreme bottom of the 2008-2009 downturn, the 1Q10/1Q09 IC market increase is likely to be greater than 50%, but as the year, IC Insights expects the quarterly year-over-year comparisons to fall back to more realistic levels with the Q4 IC market forecast to be only 14% greater than the IC market in Q4 2009.
IC Insights pointed out that forecasts for the Q2, Q3, and Q4 sequential quarterly IC market increases this year include a relatively flat Q2, a 9% increase in Q3, and a moderate 3% increase in Q4 -- remaining essentially unchanged from the company’s previous expectations.
Therefore, with only a moderate seasonal increase forecast for the IC market in the second half of this year, IC Insights believes its 27% growth forecast for 2010 still can be considered conservative.
