Q2 semiconductor sales up 17%, industry is 'returning to normal seasonal growth patterns,' SIA reports
Focused supply chain management by both producers and customers helped to moderate the impact of the global economic recession on the industry, SIA reports.
By Suzanne Deffree, Managing Editor, News -- EDN, August 3, 2009
Although sales numbers were a mixed bag of results, the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association) this morning reported on Q2, June, and first half revenue with palatable optimism for a semiconductor industry recovery.
Q2 recorded a sequential worldwide sales increase of 17% and a 20% year-over-year decline for the quarter. Q2 sales of $51.7 billion were capped off by month of June sales at $17.2 billion, an increase of 3.7% from May when sales were $16.6 billion, but 20% lower than the $21.6 billion reported for June 2008.
While June continued a month-over-month sales growth trend that began in March when sales inched up 3.3% on February's numbers, total 2009 first half sales of $95.9 billion were still 25% below the first six months of 2008, when sales were $127.5 billion, SIA data showed.
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“The fourth-consecutive monthly increase in sales is one indicator the industry is returning to normal seasonal growth patterns,” said SIA President George Scalise in a statement.
Scalise said focused supply chain management by both producers and customers helped to moderate the impact of the global economic recession on the industry. “Inventories have been closely managed, encouraging us to believe that the sequential increase in quarterly sales represents a gradual recovery of demand,” he said.
Scalise and the SIA aren't the only optimistic parties in the semiconductor industry. Several industry analysts and market research companies including Gartner and iSuppli have recently become more positive in their forecasts for key demand drivers.
“Consensus estimates for unit sales of PCs are now in the range of minus 5% to flat compared to 2008, whereas earlier forecasts were projecting year-on-year unit declines of 9 to 12%," Scalise noted. "In cell phone handsets, analysts now believe the unit decline will be in the range of 7 to 9% compared to earlier forecasts of a decline of around 15%. PCs and cell phones account for nearly 60% of worldwide semiconductor consumption."
SIA credited economic stimulus programs in China, including incentives for purchasing consumer products and investment in 3G/TDSCDMA communications infrastructure, as having helped drive semiconductor sales in the world’s largest chip market.
“The global macroeconomic environment remains the key factor in determining the timing and rate of recovery for the semiconductor industry,” Scalise concluded.
According to SIA data, sales in the Asia Pacific were up 23.2% in Q2 on a sequential basis. Q2 sales in the Americas were up 11.8% sequentially, while sales in Japan were up 17.9% and sales in Europe were up 0.5%.
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The 17% sequential jump in the semiconductor market in second quarter 2009 is impressive. The question is whether this is just a bounce back from a 24% decline in 4Q 2008 and a 15% decline in 1Q 2009, or is it a sustained recovery. I believe there is evidence of a sustained recovery, see www.semiconductorintelligence.com
Bill Jewell - 2009-3-8 14:48:00 PDT
