Photovoltaic market to see 17% growth rate, Gartner reports
"Development of clean energy technology is likely to figure prominently in the future growth of the major industrialized economies, and PV solar is well positioned to capitalize on this trend," Gartner analysts James Hines and Alfonso Velosa report.
By Suzanne Deffree, Managing Editor, News -- EDN, March 16, 2009
The skies may be gray and gloomy, but there are rays of opportunity among the economic storm clouds.
Gartner Inc has issued its first forecast of the PV (photovoltaic) solar cell market, estimating the PV market will grow at a 17% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) between 2008 and 2013 to reach $34 billion revenue in 2013.
Gartner's report came today after the overall solar and PV industry was identified as an area of market opportunity by semiconductor industry leaders at last week's Semico Summit. ISuppli also last week reported that European countries lead in PV production and installations.
"Growing worldwide demand for 'green' energy sources aligns with shrinking PV module prices based on improved manufacturing technologies and less-expensive raw materials," Gartner analysts James Hines and Alfonso Velosa wrote in the research company's Semiconductor DQ Monday Report this morning. "Despite this strong growth, solar energy will serve only a fraction of a percent of worldwide energy consumption by 2013, leaving room for substantial growth in the PV market beyond the forecast horizon."
That is not to say that the PV market is without short-term challenges. Like all markets, PV's near-term growth is being stymied by the global credit crunch, currency fluctuations, and nervous customers with tightened spend budgets.
Gartner estimated that after years of double-digit growth the worldwide PV market reached $16 billion in revenue in 2008 and forecasted that the market's revenue will decrease 1% in 2009. However, on a GW (gigawatt) basis, Gartner said it expects the overall PV market will grow 24%, reaching 6.4 GW in 2009.
Despite the short-term challenges, Gartner has a positive long-term view for the PV market.
"Development of clean energy technology is likely to figure prominently in the future growth of the major industrialized economies, and PV solar is well positioned to capitalize on this trend," Hines and Velosa said. "Continued government support of solar energy appears likely, and that is important because solar energy remains dependent on subsidies to be cost-competitive with conventional forms of electric power generation."
Indeed, European governments have collaborated closely with research institutions and industry players during the last two decades aiming to move their economies away from hydrocarbon-based electricity sources while creating jobs and establishing a new industry capable of competing on the global stage. The US Recovery Act, endorsed by semiconductor industry groups including the IPC and the SIA, takes a similar approach in its alternative-energy strategy.
"As policy support continues to spur demand, the large-scale industrialization of PV manufacturing will take place, which will drive down costs to the point at which PV-generated electricity is economically viable without external support," the analysts said.
According to Gartner, crystalline silicon will remain the dominant PV technology during the next five years, despite rapid growth in thin-film PV sales.
Gartner forecasted PV market growth to reach 23.4 GW by 2013.
