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iSuppli Predicts Less-Than-Jolly Holidays

By Colleen Taylor -- EDN, October 26, 2006

With product delays, competing standards and inventory shortages plaguing the consumer electronics market, there may not be one "killer application" this holiday season that emerges to capture the attention of shoppers during this market's hottest time of the year, according to a recent report from market research firm iSuppli Corp.

The issues plaguing the holiday season are also contributing to what iSuppli said is an overall slowdown this year in consumer electronics. According to the firm, factory equipment revenue will only rise 2.4 percent to reach $302.3 billion in 2006, compared to 11.6 percent and 13 percent growth in 2004 and 2005, respectively.

Apple Computer Inc.'sInternet Television (iTV), which will enable consumers to view iTunes and other content on their televisions via a Wi-Fi link to their personal computers, was one of the heavy favorites to lead the market during the holiday season; however, its launch date has been set for January.*  Normally, such a delay might provide a great opportunity for another company to steal the spotlight with a hit holiday product -- but competing standards and product shortages are making this much less likely, according to the firm.

Next-generation HD-video DVD players, which should have been this year's hit holiday product, have turned out to inspire little more than yawns from consumers, iSuppli said. The battle between the HD-DVD and Blu-ray standards for next-generation DVD is actually resulting in much slower growth. Many consumers are waiting for a winner or, more likely, the emergence of dual-standard players and/or disks in time for next year's holiday season, according to the firm.

Furthermore, iSuppli said that neither standard has a true technological advantage. The HD-DVD camp, headed by Toshiba Corp., got a head start by entering the market in the late spring. However, iSuppli said, those initial products have been criticized for slow performance and a lack of full 1080 progressive-scan HD video output.

Meanwhile, the Blu-ray group, led by Sony Corp., has encountered its own problems. Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. launched its debut BD-P1000 player in June only to admit image quality problems in September, the firm said. Other Blu-ray makers have delayed launches, partly due to a shortage of blue laser diodes -- which is responsible for Sony's holiday season-dampening PS3 launch delay.

The season may not be a bust for all consumer electronic companies, however, the firm said, noting Nintendo's highly anticipated Wii as a possible bright spot in an otherwise lackluster holiday season. iSuppli noted that hype is high for the relatively reasonably priced gaming console, and that sales are likely to be brisk at its mid-November debut.

This sentence stated iTV's launch was "pushed back to January" when this story was published. iTV's original launch date was set for Q1 2007. 

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