2009 PC outlook slashed on credit crunch
Single-digit PC unit shipment growth of only 4.3% is expected next year as IT equipment purchases take a back seat to "real issues," like paying staff or making rising mortgage payments, according to iSuppli.
By Suzanne Deffree, Managing Editor, News -- EDN, November 28, 2008
ISuppli Corp has slashed its 2009 forecast for PC unit shipments by nearly two-thirds and is predicting single-digit growth of only 4.3% in the coming year.
The revised estimate calls for 2009 total PC shipments to reach 316 million units on 2008's estimated 303 million units shipped.
The market research company had previously predicted 11.9% growth for the year, followed by a 9.4% expansion in 2010 shipments. The new forecast for 2010 calls for a 7.1% growth in unit shipments.
ISuppli revised its forecast this month after the financial turmoil hit in Q3, impacting both business and consumer IT spending.
“The result of the financial turmoil is less money to spend, and often that money is itself more expensive,” Matthew Wilkins, iSuppli's compute platforms principal analyst, said in a statement. “With less money to spend, application markets, like PCs, have been impacted."
According to iSuppli, the PC market has been a buoyant end-application market for a long time, reporting annual growth rates around 10% for the past five years—with 2008 becoming the sixth year, due to 13% growth expected. But on the credit collapse, prospects for the PC market in 2009 are not as positive as in previous years, the company said.
“Real issues—such as difficulties in paying staff or making rising mortgage payments—are affecting businesses, as well as consumers,” Wilkins continued. “In light of such financial issues, the task of refreshing or acquiring new IT equipment has taken a back seat.”
ISuppli estimates that desktop PCs in 2009 will suffer a shipment decline of approximately 5%, while notebook PCs will achieve growth of about 15%. The research company notes that the forecasted notebook growth included netbooks, which are expected to show less of a reduction in 2009 than other notebook platforms, primarily due to their lower average selling prices.
