Oil prices, technology, and the cost of ignorance
Many opportunities exist to use a little understanding, a little technology, and a little capital to make a significant decrease in fuel consumption. But rest assured that these things will not happen.
By Ron Wilson, Executive Editor -- EDN, September 4, 2008
The world has just had a graphic demonstration of the workings of supply and demand in the oil industry. Supply of sweet, light crude became insufficient for the demand, and its price shot up. In response to the higher prices, demand for gasoline in the United States dropped, and the price shot back down again. In light of this dramatic performance, it is worth asking whether quick, technically feasible applications of electronics could significantly reduce demand in the short term.
We are looking for feasible and fast solutions, so converting the entire Western world's vehicle fleet to fuel cells is out. So is covering two Southwestern states with photovoltaic cells or building a set of experimental but full-scale fusion reactors. Relatively quick measures do exist, however, and, unsurprisingly, they focus not on fundamental changes in society but on increasing efficiency.
One example dear to the hearts of many commuters is traffic control. In much of North America and, from the little we have seen, industrializing Asia, the entire notion that you can enhance rather than impede the flow of traffic by properly regulating traffic lights is an as-yet-unmade discovery. The cost of this ignorance is horrendous. Estimates show that a third of the fuels vehicles in urban areas consume go to waste because of unnecessary acceleration, almost entirely after a traffic control or jam has slowed the vehicle. Technologically simple computerized sensor and control networks and known algorithms could cut this waste by a large factor. The amount of necessary capital equipment and labor would be trivial in comparison with the savings and within the resources of even state-level governments without huge national subsidies. The only shortage is in the skill to install and operate the networks and the knowledge to recognize the problem.
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Public transportation presents a similar example. Most municipalities in the world wear about their necks as a token of honor an ever-moving, constantly belching necklace of huge diesel buses, with a ratio of average payload weight to vehicle weight that would embarrass a Hummer owner. Municipalities could inexpensively replace most of these monstrosities with fuel-efficient small vans, directed by a network of GPS (global-position-system) sensors, traffic monitors, requester terminals, and computers, creating an on-demand public-transit network that would function at a fraction of the fuel consumption and congestion generation of the behemoths. Again, there is no new technology here, and adequately suitable vehicles are currently languishing in automotive-dealer inventories.
Or consider where the demand for all that sweet, light crude oil comes from. The most dramatic increase isn't from sport-utility vehicles or corporate jets. It's from diesel generators because, in much of the developing world, local demand for electricity—partly created by our desire for cell phones and TV sets—is soaring. In countries that lack generation and distribution infrastructure, only local diesel generators can meet that demand. Hence, the demand for diesel soars—driving refineries to capacity and creating a shortage of sweet, light crude oil. (There is no shortage or price premium for high-sulfur crude, by the way. Few refineries can produce diesel from it.) So what would be the impact on demand if we focused our photovoltaic and storage efforts and subsidies not on wealthy North Americans' rooftops, but on developing-world towns and villages?
Many such opportunities exist to use a little understanding, a little technology, and a little capital to make a significant decrease in fuel consumption. And, as noted, a small decrease in consumption can make a big difference in global inflation pressure. But rest assured that these things will not happen. Inefficiency is one of the costs nature imposes as the price of public ignorance of technology.
Contact me at ronald.wilson@reedbusiness.com.
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Excellent article. I hope the president-elect will concentrate on the unpopular area of efficiency along with the green energy alternatives. I wouldn't count nuclear energy as one of those alternatives.
John Jaeger - 2008-12-11 06:20:00 PST -
"...wealthy North Americans..." Okay, we got that Ron Wilson hates Americans and the West in general, typical of the fading American Left. He and his ilk pave the road to Hell with their Good Intentions. Do these Green Morons ever stop to think that energy conservation is a loser''s game, given that capitalist economies are based on growth, not sustainability? Stoopid twist CCFLs and fascist-regulated ground traffic control will buy only a few years'' lessening of oil consumption -- demand will continue to grow regardless of conservation.
Stop rearranging the Titanic''s deck chairs, already. Cut out deluding yourselves that techie quick fixes, while they make greenie engineers and neo-hippie editorialists *feel* better (for a while), they ultimately are doomed to fail to have any permanent effect as long as the paymasters demand more producer-consumers to fuel incessant economic expansion.
Sea Crow - 2008-13-9 17:26:00 PDT -
I couldn''t agree more. In my area on Long Island, there are a number of roads with traffic lights a couple of hundred feet apart.
When the first one turns green, you start to go but the second one turn red before you reach it. While it''s a good idea to use computer control of traffic lights to maximize traffic flow, a simple approach in this scenerio is to simple have the lights change together.
Another way to improve fuel economy is to change Stop signs to Yield signs. Most people don''t stop, anyway, and those that do waste gas. In many areas, there''s no cross traffic so stopping isn''t needed.
There''s one more low-tech technique for reducing fuel consumption: enforce the speed limit!
Stuart Michaels - 2008-9-9 13:56:00 PDT -
The title of the article invited me to read it and has also made me post my personal comments. The line “In response to the higher prices, demand for gasoline in the United States dropped, and the price shot back down again” also means the bulk of demand for oil is from developed countries and that governs the oil prices.
Also the comment “It''s from diesel generators because, in much of the developing world, local demand for electricity—partly created by our desire for cell phones and TV sets—is soaring.” is not palatable. Yes diesel generators are used but they are also not affordable for a common man.
In the developing countries, industries have been forced and got used to adjust to the condition that there may be no power in industrial areas for 24 hours and there are regulations on diesel consumption as well. Are such norms applied to developed countries?
In most residences here (with incomes way way lower than wealthy North Americans) there is an increasing bend towards using solar power for water heating. This is a result of many entrepreneurs bringing these products into the local market. This takes a major chunk off one’s electricity bill. The government does provide subsidy for these installations. There has to be a promotion of using alternative power globally.
Regarding “belching necklace of huge diesel buses”, majority of these are from the stables of the automotive industry which is one of the strongest in the developed countries. Shouldn’t they be introspecting their designs for fuel-efficiency?
To conclude, the last paragraph sums up the need of the hour and collectively all have to work for it.
Monali - 2008-8-9 23:18:00 PDT -
I think the biggest problem with traffic lights is the people who set them. Locally we have an advisory council who set speed limits and traffic lights. The head of the group (a county employee) uses the excuse that he doesn't know how to set them to match traffic flow, but he's still employed, and still setting them to impeed traffic.
Robert Wethington - 2008-7-9 14:44:00 PDT
