Searching for stability
By Susan Mulcahy, Research Analyst -- EDN, December 1, 2004
With the election behind us and the economy reaching some level of stability, purchasing managers are not expecting many changes for the next 30 days. Roughly two-thirds of respondents are expecting no change in business conditions.
Most companies are looking for signs that will indicate what 2005 will bring them. While most businesses will not be as conservative as they were a year ago, most are taking a wait-and-see attitude for the next month. Look for pricing and supply conditions to remain relatively stable and for companies to maintain their inventory levels.
PRICESPrices over the next 30 days will...
| Rise | Fall | Remain steady | Don't know | |
| Microprocessors | 20% | 8% | 67% | 5% |
| Memory | 14% | 20% | 58% | 8% |
| Semicustom chips | 18% | 14% | 62% | 6% |
| Passives/connectors/switches & relays | 21% | 19% | 57% | 3% |
| Other | 14% | 15% | 66% | 19% |
AVAILABILITYSupply conditions for the next 30 days will...
| Improve | Worsen | Stay the same | |
| Microprocessors | 26% | 20% | 54% |
| Memory | 19% | 12% | 69% |
| Semicustom chips | 23% | 17% | 60% |
| Passives/connectors/switches & relays | 16% | 18% | 66% |
| Other | 20% | 21% | 59% |
INVENTORYOver the next 30 days, what will be your position on inventories?
| Build | Maintain | Reduce | Don't know | |
| Microprocessors | 17% | 69% | 3% | 11% |
| Memory | 23% | 64% | 2% | 11% |
| Semicustom chips | 12% | 69% | 16% | 3% |
| Passives/connectors/switches & relays | 19% | 64% | 14% | 3% |
| Other | 25% | 63% | 11% | 1% |
DELIVERYWhat percent of components are arriving...
| Early | On time | Late | |
| Microprocessors | 17% | 74% | 9% |
| Memory | 13% | 70% | 17% |
| Semicustom chips | 21% | 72% | 7% |
| Passives/connectors switches & relays | 15% | 71% | 14% |
| Other | 20% | 75% | 5% |
LEAD TIMESLead times for the next 30 days will get...
| Longer | Shorter | Stay the same | Don't know | |
| Microprocessors | 22% | 17% | 55% | 6% |
| Memory | 24% | 16% | 60% | 0% |
| Semicustom chips | 21% | 13% | 64% | 2% |
| Passives/connectors/switches & relays | 20% | 18% | 57% | 5% |
| Other | 15% | 19% | 60% | 6% |
ORDER VOLUMEHow will order volumes change over the next 30 days?
| Rise | Fall | Stay the same | Don't know | |
| Microprocessors include microprocessors (CISC and RISC), microcontrollers and DSPs. Memory includes DRAMs, SRAMs, EPROMs, EEPROMs and flash memories. Source: reed research group Semicustom includes PALs, gate arrays and ASICs. Passives include resistors and capacitors. Other includes power supplies, PC boards, hard drives, monitors, keyboards, displays and batteries. |
||||
| Microprocessors | 22% | 6% | 66% | 6% |
| Memory | 21% | 16% | 60% | 3% |
| Semicustom chips | 17% | 13% | 65% | 5% |
| Passives/connectors/switches & relays | 21% | 14% | 58% | 7% |
| Other | 18% | 15% | 58% | 9% |
