Looking for the Next Big Thing?
By Ed Sperling -- EDN, August 27, 2004
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| Ed Sperling Editor-in-Chief |
The next big thing has arrived.
In fact it’s been here, right in front of our noses, and experts have been speculating on just what that thing is. Some say it’s the digital consumer. Others say it’s the connected consumer, which includes everything from voice over Internet protocol (VoIP) to short-range communications like RFID and 802.11. Still others say it’s the extended workplace, which allows anyone within a corporation to take full advantage of a company’s IT infrastructure no matter where they are.
Personally, I think the real answer is the converged business models of all of these things and more. The next big thing isn’t technology. It’s a way of capitalizing on the technologies that are already in place. We’ve become so used to looking at technology gains that we’re ignoring the economic changes ahead that will carve out a slew of new business models.
Just as Moore’s Law is an economic principle, taking advantage of new technologies is far more important than the technology itself. It doesn’t matter if Microsoft Word can do a lot more than most people will ever need. What’s important is how the application improves productivity for the person using it.
That same principle applies to the digital consumer. What exactly does the consumer get by purchasing a cell phone that’s also a camera and an MP3 player? Not a whole heck of a lot, other than a few gimmicks. But the cell phone that can be interchanged with an office phone or a home phone on the same network with an acceptable level of text messaging and Internet search capabilities is a real business proposition. In Europe, you can even make purchases by scanning with a cell phone and having them run through a central billing system.
The same is true of the connected consumer. Voice over IP is interesting technology, but the more interesting part is how you can cut costs and take advantage of new services. In essence, this becomes return on investment for the consumer, who can screen calls, hold teleconferences -- think telecommuter -- or spam the world with marketing calls tied to a central database. It may not all be pleasant, but there’s a real business model in here that’s about to unfold over the next couple of years.
Similarly, the extended workplace has been an unfulfilled vision that is still finding its way into the market, but at least pieces are finally getting added. It’s possible for workers to get the same level of e-mail and corporate intranet service now, whether they’re at home, in a hotel room in Beijing or sitting in the office. And in the future, they may be able to make calls through the corporate network, collaborate on projects and even go on the road with a single device that works as a cell phone, plugs into a hotel network with a keyboard and carries authentication data for accessing the corporate network or home banking.
The convergence of voice, data and consumer are more than just interesting developments. They’re going to change the way everyone does business, and that’s more than just an interesting new development. It’s an entirely new way of looking at things, the ramifications of which will be felt for decades.
