PC shipments expected to increase 22%, Gartner reports

PC demand in the consumer segment continues to strengthen even though the global economy remains uncertain, the research company reports.

Suzanne Deffree -- EDN, May 27, 2010

Consumer spending will help drive 2010 PC shipments up 22% to 376.6 million units, Gartner estimated in a report Wednesday.

According to the research house, worldwide PC spending is forecast to reach $245.4 billion in 2010, up 12% from 2009.

"PC demand in the consumer segment continues to strengthen even though the global economy remains uncertain," said Ranjit Atwal, principal research analyst at Gartner, in a statement. "Consumers are now viewing PCs as necessities rather than luxury items. In the downturn, PCs remained the electronic device of choice on which to spend household income in mature markets, and we do not expect this to change either in 2010 or beyond."

The worldwide home PC market is expected to outpace the professional market with 29.5% growth in 2010, while the professional PC market is projected to grow 13.1% this year, according to Gartner estimates.

"In the professional PC market, the aging life of PCs will drive replacements. Organizations will find it tougher to further extend PC life cycles without incurring more costs," Atwal said. "This, together with the adoption of Windows 7, will generate robust demand in the professional market. Larger businesses expect to start replacements in the second half of 2010, with the majority replaced in 2011. We now expect Windows 7 migration to last through 2012."

Gartner said that mini-notebooks, also known as netbooks, continue to grow rapidly, but noted that their growth is showing signs of slowing as the submarket for them matures.  The research company estimated that worldwide mini-notebook shipments will total 41.8 million units in 2010, a 30% increase from 2009 shipments of 32.1 million units. In all, mini-notebooks will account for 18.6% of mobile PC shipments in 2010. Starting in 20011, their share of PC shipments is expected to decline, dipping to 13.9% of the mobile PC market in 2014.

"The mini-notebook segment will be impacted by increasingly competitive ultralow-voltage (ULV) products, the decreasing prices of all mobile PCs and the maturing preferences of consumers," said Raphael Vasquez, research analyst at Gartner, in the statement. "Some consumers purchased mini-notebooks based solely on price. Many consumers are now choosing purchases up the price curve rather than at the bottom of it."

Gartner analysts said media tablets -- a device that has a screen size of 5 inches or larger and is outfitted with a restricted-function OS -- will impact the PC market, especially mini-notebooks, and the forecast reflects this. Other tablets are included in Gartner's overall forecast.

"Media tablets will not impact the mini-notebook segment this year," Vasquez said. "However, media tablets, such as the iPad and similar devices, will significantly detract from mini-notebook shipments in 2013 and onward, when we expect their prices to be lower and, more importantly, their functionality to be more similar to mini-notebooks."

Gartner expects approximately 10 million media tablets to ship in 2010.

On a regional basis, Gartner said that PC markets in Western Europe, China, and the United States will generate more than half of 2010 PC shipment growth.