In the semiconductor industry, predicting the future is easy. This whole business is built on self-fulfilling prophecies. The most famous of these is Moore's Law. Sometimes regarded as a prediction, it originally was just an observation, and now it's a schedule. Chipmakers use Moore's Law as a template for processor and memory roadmaps. Process-equipment makers aim two years ahead; fab builders aim one year ahead; and chips roll out right on schedule—more or less.

There's nothing magic about Moore's Law. In fact, Moore's original 1965 paper (available at http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.htm) described a 12-month doubling interval; only later did we settle on the current 18-month schedule.

Related industries have their own versions of Moore's Law. The performance of 3D-graphics chips between about 1995 and 2000 doubled every six months or so. Hard-disk capacities historically have doubled about every two years, though the introduction of new technology occasionally speeds up this pace.

Moore's Law works hand-in-hand with Parkinson's Law to keep us all employed. In 1955, Cyril Northcote Parkinson wrote in The Economist, "Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion." These two rules show us how to predict the future of our industry. When Moore's Law makes a new application possible, Parkinson's Law ensures it will happen.

Moore's Law works hand-in-hand with
Parkinson's Law to keep us all employed

The first personal computers were designed to process and store text and numbers only. As capabilities improved, limited 2D graphics and audio were added to the mix. Today, we have high-definition video, audio quality beyond what the ear can hear and sophisticated 3D graphics. But there's still room for more improvement.

PCs today still can't store all the data they can receive, particularly in the case of audio and video. Your PC probably has a microphone and may have a Web-cam, but you rarely record the audio and video from these devices to your hard disk. There's just not enough room—but there will be, eventually.

Real-time MPEG-4 encoding would let you store eight hours of video per day into 900 Mbytes of disk space. You may think you have no reason to keep a video record of your days at the office, but when it costs just 10 cents a day, Parkinson says you'll find a reason. Or maybe your boss will. We'll hit that price point in six years. Scary? Consider that we already can store eight hours of low-fidelity audio on a dime's worth of hard-disk space. Is your employer recording you right now?

By 2016, you'll be able to record four years of your life—audio and video 24 hours a day—onto a $500 handheld device. Think of a VCR crossed with Apple Computer's iPod. When it gets full, just toss it in a drawer and buy a new one. Less convenient versions of these devices will show up much sooner, of course. The iPod itself can store six months' worth of highly-compressed human speech, so we're not far away from the first of these "personal life recorders," if I may coin a phrase.

These capabilities won't appear suddenly. We may not even notice them at first. The entertainment industry didn't anticipate how digital technology would change its business model when it began selling compact discs. Much of that industry still doesn't get it. How will these devices change society? I doubt we'll know until it happens.

Peter N. Glaskowsky is a senior editor of the Microprocessor Report. For more information on topics covered in this column, visit http://www.chipadvisor.com. Send Peter e-mail at chipadvisor@ideaphile.com.