We've all laughed at Tim Allen's grunt for "more power" on "Home Improvement." But it may be time for semiconductor companies to take the grunt more seriously, at least in the automotive sector.

After more than 50 years, the 12V standard in automobile electric systems is nearing the end of the road. And as more and more electronics find their way into vehicles, the need to move to a more powerful 42V system becomes more apparent.

Twelve-volt systems already are being strained by luxury add-ins such as heated seats, booming stereos and collision avoidance systems. Add x by wire—a system that replaces a car's hydraulic and mechanical parts with electronics, making way for features such as electronic brakes, steering and valve control—and there will be a new power guzzler that can only be satisfied by 42V.

"As it is now, the 12V system is getting really very close to reaching the limits. This is really going to increase the demands on components makers," said Frank Viquez, director of automotive electronics for market researcher Allied Business Intelligence Inc.(ABI). "When you have so many more electronics going into the vehicle, it's really going to ignite the need for more power components and regulators." ABI estimates that 21 percent of a vehicle's cost is electronic. That number is expected to climb to 39 percent in 2010 as 42V systems capture just more than 10 percent of the worldwide auto market.

The 42V standard already has hit the road in Japan, where Toyota has delivered its 42V Crown in limited supply. Here at home, General Motors has promised the construction market a 42V hybrid pickup truck with 110V outlets built-in by 2004. But when 42V will see a clear roadmap is unknown. "With the economy being sluggish, people are questioning, do we introduce new technology or not, and saying we only need to introduce new technology when it has real end-customer benefits," said Shawn Slusser, senior manager of product marketing at Infineon Technologies North America Corp.

One major benefit to customers is fuel savings. ABI says a 42V system has the ability to shut down every time a vehicle comes to a stop, restarting within a couple of milliseconds to virtually eliminate idling and reduce fuel economy by 10 percent to 15 percent. Fuel economy also would be helped along by x by wire, as bulkier hydraulic parts would be removed and replaced with electronic drive-belt accessories, such as air conditioning compressors and power-steering pumps, at greater efficiency and reduced weight.

From an automaker's standpoint, moving to electric systems could cut overhead. Gearing up from a 12V system, which hits 14V when running, to a 42V system not only increases the electrical power threefold, but it also cuts the current of the vehicle by a factor of three. With the lower current, the size and cost of power semiconductors can be reduced, allowing for their use in applications that could not use semiconductors before.

"By reducing the current by a factor of three it makes it more cost-effective to use semiconductors where mechanical systems were used in the past," Slusser said. "We can now control more of the loads in a car with electronics instead of mechanical links. Those components become less expensive because as you reduce the current requirements, you reduce the requirements of the components, at least on the power side."

But with production ramp-ups and research and development still underway, the cost-savings won't affect automakers immediately.

"The variable cost may be a benefit, but ? because you're talking about fundamentally changing infrastructure that has been around for ages there's so much overhead required and coordination that I think that's really the barrier, not so much the variable costs," said Robert LeFort, president of Infineon Technologies North America.

For that reason, a hybrid 14V/42V system with two buses may act as a stepping stone to a full 42V system, allowing automakers to get the most out of their installed 14V systems and take a safer risk.

"What they are probably going to do is go with 42V in real high-power applications in the car and stay at 14V at the lower-power [applications]," said Steve Clemente, a senior technologist in International Rectifier Corp.'s automotive systems department. "If you go to 42V, why not just bite the bullet and go to 42V? Having two buses in the car is very expensive, but they do it because the automotive people are very conservative."

A less likely alternative would be an all-inclusive approach, redesigning the vehicle from the ground up to take advantage of 42V's beneficial variable costs.

"The all-inclusive approach is considered a more risky attempt," said John McGowan, senior director of Infineon Technologies North America's automotive and industrial electronics unit. "You have to redesign everything on this system to connect in. Generally, car manufacturers prefer to take a less risky attempt."

Meanwhile, automakers have standardization hurdles to overcome.

"Standardization is a big headache right now because you have ad hoc standards developing nationwide, and when you have Japan and Europe arguing on how to just make the right connectors for this, how to hook up the main connector to the battery, when you get down to other things, it's really going to slow things down," said ABI's Viquez.

Semiconductor players won't have a smooth ride either, says Dan Leih, marketing manager for Motorola Inc.'s analog products division. Leih pointed out that as parts shrink, lowering the current, the voltage below half a micron naturally begins to drop. Analog makers will be called upon to accommodate that.

"Automakers—in fact the whole world—want more performance for less money, and in order to do that the microprocessor/microcontroller guys have to shrink their parts," he said. "The way [automakers accommodate that] is to wrap my product around the MCU. Most MCUs or controllers in a car today have an analog layer between the real world and the digital controller."

Leih said that means the analog players and, in some cases, the discrete suppliers will have to change their products. "It's not a disaster for us to have to change; we've already invested in the process technology in anticipation of this. Where we're stuck is on parts."

Leih compared the issue to the old chicken-and-egg problem, saying that 42V parts can't be made until automakers know what they want and automakers won't know what they want until they've seen their options.

"Semiconductor guys these days don't have a lot of money sitting around that they can just spend on new parts that they don't know if anyone will buy," Leih said. "If a carmaker would make a commitment and dedicate a line, then I think we could get something going. But it is going to take a joint effort."

Energy surges also are a problem for component makers. "When the motor turns off or changes direction you get this big energy surge coming back down the line and you have to protect against that," Leih said. "It could be three times 42V, so to the semiconductor guys 42V could mean 120V."

Even with these obstacles, the automotive track is a good one to be on, as Viquez noted that automakers have hardly been affected by the economic downturn. Infineon, for one, reaped the benefits of its No. 2 worldwide position and No. 1 European position in the automotive semiconductor market, recently recording 14 percent revenue growth for fiscal 2002 in its automotive and industrial electronics division—an all-time high for the company.

Infineon's European placement may pay off. Before it pulls into American garages, 42V is expected to catch on in Europe because of the higher gasoline prices and stricter carbon monoxide emissions rating here. The rating calls for a 25 percent CO₂ reduction from 1995 levels in new cars by 2008.

Still, Viquez thinks Infineon and No. 1 worldwide auto semiconductor player Motorola need to buckle up because the competition is about to get fierce. "A lot of announced mergers between Japanese IC makers all have Motorola in their sights," he said. "I predict it to be a cutthroat battle in North America. And a lot of them have their sights on Infineon in Europe and such.

"I see a lot of your guys like your IRs, your Micronas, the Hitachi/Mitsubishi guys combining their strengths and going after these guys. The pot is there; it's big enough for everyone to play in. And as far as guys like Infineon and Motorola, I'd be surprised if they could sustain their current automotive shares," Viquez said.

While Motorola is aware of competition from long-time automotive players, Leih says he isn't worried about new players entering the field. "There are lots of people that want to enter automotive, but automotive is a long-term commitment," Leih said. "Automotive is not the DRAM business. You can't drop in one day because your price went down and jump out next week and expect to ever be a player again. The auto guys need you there for 10 years."