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Searching for stability

By Susan Mulcahy, Research Analyst -- Electronic Business, 12/1/2004

With the election behind us and the economy reaching some level of stability, purchasing managers are not expecting many changes for the next 30 days. Roughly two-thirds of respondents are expecting no change in business conditions.

Most companies are looking for signs that will indicate what 2005 will bring them. While most businesses will not be as conservative as they were a year ago, most are taking a wait-and-see attitude for the next month. Look for pricing and supply conditions to remain relatively stable and for companies to maintain their inventory levels.

PRICESPrices over the next 30 days will...
Rise Fall Remain steady Don't know
Microprocessors 20% 8% 67% 5%
Memory 14% 20% 58% 8%
Semicustom chips 18% 14% 62% 6%
Passives/connectors/switches & relays 21% 19% 57% 3%
Other 14% 15% 66% 19%

AVAILABILITYSupply conditions for the next 30 days will...
Improve Worsen Stay the same
Microprocessors 26% 20% 54%
Memory 19% 12% 69%
Semicustom chips 23% 17% 60%
Passives/connectors/switches & relays 16% 18% 66%
Other 20% 21% 59%

INVENTORYOver the next 30 days, what will be your position on inventories?
Build Maintain Reduce Don't know
Microprocessors 17% 69% 3% 11%
Memory 23% 64% 2% 11%
Semicustom chips 12% 69% 16% 3%
Passives/connectors/switches & relays 19% 64% 14% 3%
Other 25% 63% 11% 1%

DELIVERYWhat percent of components are arriving...
Early On time Late
Microprocessors 17% 74% 9%
Memory 13% 70% 17%
Semicustom chips 21% 72% 7%
Passives/connectors switches & relays 15% 71% 14%
Other 20% 75% 5%

LEAD TIMESLead times for the next 30 days will get...
Longer Shorter Stay the same Don't know
Microprocessors 22% 17% 55% 6%
Memory 24% 16% 60% 0%
Semicustom chips 21% 13% 64% 2%
Passives/connectors/switches & relays 20% 18% 57% 5%
Other 15% 19% 60% 6%

ORDER VOLUMEHow will order volumes change over the next 30 days?
Rise Fall Stay the same Don't know
Microprocessors 22% 6% 66% 6%
Memory 21% 16% 60% 3%
Semicustom chips 17% 13% 65% 5%
Passives/connectors/switches & relays 21% 14% 58% 7%
Other 18% 15% 58% 9%
Microprocessors include microprocessors (CISC and RISC), microcontrollers and DSPs.
Memory includes DRAMs, SRAMs, EPROMs, EEPROMs and flash memories.
Source: reed research group
Semicustom includes PALs, gate arrays and ASICs.
Passives include resistors and capacitors.
Other includes power supplies, PC boards, hard drives, monitors, keyboards, displays and batteries.



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