Columnists

No shortage of 'engineering shortage' talk

Like a classic Cole Porter tune, the 'shortage' refrain is always with us. Does it ring true?

By Bill Schweber, Executive Editor -- EDN, 5/26/2005

You can't pick up a magazine or paper, or look at a news and commentary Web site, without seeing knowledgeable people bemoaning the "engineering shortage." The presumed causes usually fall into a few categories. Too few students are taking up math and science. Or engineering has a perception problem that discourages students from pursuing the profession.

While I agree with the statements about student skills and lack of professional image, I disagree with what it all means. The commentators are quick to point out the impact of the shortage. Engineering jobs are going overseas to countries such as India and China, where legions of trained, hard-working engineers can do the job for much less. America is losing a vital economic resource. And so on.

I'm skeptical about the entire "shortage" cry. I've been around this industry a long time (though I did not watch Shockley, Bardeen, and Brattain as they fired up that first transistor at Bell Labs in 1948) and I have been hearing about this shortage, with varying intensity, all that time. With few exceptions, such as when engineering unemployment reached double-digits and engineers were driving cabs (not that there's anything wrong with that), the shortage story has outlasted just about every other premise in this industry, including Moore's Law.

A lot of the reasoning surrounding the shortage story seems circular. We don't have enough engineers coming into the field, so companies are looking overseas to find the needed skills, which in turn diminishes the prospects for US-based engineers, and so on. But as with all circles, it's hard to say where the reasoning starts. Which is the cause, and which is the effect? Depending on your perspective, you could start your argument at any point on the circle's circumference.

Consider the following points when you hear talk of the presumed engineering shortage. First, the globalization of technology, design, and manufacturing makes worldwide design an inevitable and unavoidable fact. The number of engineers in the US has a limited effect on this global industry. Second, engineering productivity, like that in so many other industries, has increased tremendously in the past decades—even more than the complexity of the projects themselves.

Finally, but most importantly, the people shouting "shortage" often have—and I'm sure we're all shocked, just shocked, to hear this—a vested self-interest in the situation. Schools are looking for students to fill seats, pay tuition, and serve as research assistants. Companies want more engineers to choose from as they staff their projects.

In reality, no one knows how many engineers our high-tech society needs. In addition to the impact of productivity gains, the nature of the design work that's going on also alters the demand for engineers. The industry is devoting itself to high-volume consumer products, which require tremendous manufacturing resources but call for roughly the same amount of engineers as low- to moderate-volume products. Thus, the ratio of engineers to product volume is going down.

Even the IEEE has mixed emotions on this subject. The Institute, which as a whole has heavy academic leanings, speaks of the shortage as a fact. However, IEEE-USA, the part of the IEEE that represents working, nonacademic engineers in the United States, speaks of diminished opportunities, unemployment, underemployment, and uncertainty.

No doubt there is a shortage of engineers—if you define an engineer as someone who has two to five years of experience in the latest technologies, boasts finely honed skills, and is willing to work long hours and solve complex problems for moderate pay and limited recognition. There is also a shortage of gold at $30 per ounce, but far less of a shortage at $500 per ounce.

I think the "shortage" is a myth, perpetuated primarily by the diverging mismatch of interests between engineers in school or industry and those who need their services.