FROM EDN EUROPE: Shortage? What shortage?

From time to time, on this page, you will have read columns by my US-based colleague Bill Schweber. I have just read one of his recent columns (you can too; at www.edn.com/article/CA529820.html) which he titled "There's no shortage of engineering-shortage talk". I won't reproduce the whole column here, because quite a bit of what Bill has to say speaks mainly to the US situation. But what immediately struck me about the column was that it almost exactly mirrored one that I wrote on this side of the Atlantic several years ago. My first reaction was, "Nothing changes."

Let me summarise the argument. In the US right now, there is a measure of agonising about the (declining) number of students enrolling for science-, maths-, and engineering-based courses. So, goes the argument, we must be in a steadily worsening situation with a developing shortage of the adequate skills we need to run our high-technology-dependent society. There's a contrary worry about skilled design jobs being "exported" to lower-labour-cost developing economies (overwhelmingly, China and India): but let's set that aside for now.

On the shortage argument, Bill is sceptical. Against a relatively modest decline in the numbers of graduate engineers, you have to set the productivity gains that are engendered by today's design tools and design techniques. In any case, how many engineers and scientists constitute the "right" number in our society? Does anyone know? If someone professed to know, would we believe them? Ever the realist, Bill also notes that many of those to be heard crying that, "the sky is falling" have something of a vested interest—not least, the academic community with course quotas to fill. The laws of supply and demand play some small part as well; as Bill wryly observes, there's a serious shortage of gold to purchase at $30 an ounce, rather less of a shortage at $500 an ounce.

Across Europe, there's no consistent match for the US experience—certainly in the newer member countries of the EU, there would appear to be no shortage of enthusiastic students in the "hard" sciences. But in some other countries, you can find the same concerns expressed.

By coincidence, only hours before reading my colleague's column, I had been talking with Pat Byrne, President of Agilent's Test and Measurement business, and I had raised the same question with him; was Agilent finding it hard to get the right quality and quantity of engineers? Byrne says not; "But we do have the benefit of a well-known name, a good reputation as a company to work for, and challenging and rewarding work to offer. We invest in intern programmes, co-operation with universities, and training—it can take several years these days for a graduate recruit to become fully productive." Byrne also makes Bill's point about the increased productivity of a design engineer backed by sufficient investment in today's design methodologies. Agilent, then, doesn't seem to be having a problem—but not all companies can offer the same attractions, so that is not to say there may not be something of a scramble for talent elsewhere in the sector.

Of course, if you are seeking an engineer who understands, say, how to lay out a 2.4 GHz circuit so that it gets close to working first time, and at the same time has a firm grasp of the digitally-modulated signals he's going to route through it—that could be a different proposition. But recruiting specialist talent is always a more difficult exercise. Overall, I don't detect any great shortage of engineers here. On balance, I still tend to concur with my US colleague's conclusions on the subject.

What of our concerns in the reverse direction? The possible loss of design work eastwards, following in the wake of so much manufacturing? In the week that has seen Siemens sell its troubled mobile handset to BenQ, it would clearly be foolish to dismiss such worries. Some would say that we have to keep ahead of the game, to willingly relinquish design functions that become "routine" or "commoditised" and to constantly re-focus our efforts on the high-level, the innovative and the creative aspects of the design process. It's a good argument as far as it goes, but intuitively it does appear to have its limits. Apart from the ever-present need to "stay sharp", we may have to watch from the sidelines to see what hand is dealt to us by the forces of global trade and politics. In the long run, the cost differential that is energising the emerging economies today may be a transient phenomenon. Just as they are industrialising and modernising at a spectacular pace, so we might see the personal expectations of their "human capital" grow at an unprecedented pace, eroding that cost advantage.

Which is the greater risk? On balance, I'd pick the global market shifts ahead of the possible engineer shortages—but I'd be interested to hear how the problem looks from behind your desk.

Contact me at gprophet@reedbusiness.com.