Columnists

EDA industry needs a reality check

By Michael Santarini, Senior Editor -- EDN, 1/19/2006

Four years ago, the EDA industry appeared to be on top of the world; now, it appears to be taking desperate measures to show a recovery. In 2001, when every other industry was struggling under the weight of the worst recession in modern times, the big three EDA vendors were putting up solid but not stellar revenue gains, and EDA start-ups accounted for three of the top 10 IPOs (initial public offerings) across all industries.

EDA's seemingly brightest moment in what turned out to be a supernova of a year came at an EDAC (EDA Consortium) Chief Executive Officer forecast panel. EDAC organizers were beaming because, after a seemingly eternal absence, reporters from the business press had shown up at an EDA event. A bunch of smiling new faces, mostly bankers and venture capitalists, gathered to hear the prospects of what appeared to be a bulletproof industry. It was a standing-room-only event. The place was buzzing.

During that panel, the chief executive officers stayed away from the esoteric engineering stuff they usually offer us in the trade press and instead gave a simple, unified message: EDA is recession-proof. They espoused the view that their customers, though struggling and madly laying off employees, still needed to innovate to get out of the downturn and therefore wouldn't cut R&D budgets. EDA-industry chiefs also touted the fact that the industry would ease the lives of analysts, investors, and maybe even customers by doing away with perpetual licensing. Instead, it would offer customers one- to three-year subscriptions. Doing so, they said, would relieve their sales forces of cutting deals in the 11th hour of each quarter to meet quotas.

That moment was a high point for the EDA industry, but it didn't take long for reality to kick in. About six months later, the EDA industry learned the long, hard lesson that it is not recession-proof but rather a recession indicator. Since then, the EDA industry has been desperately trying to show that it is an indicator of a recovery. It hasn't yet recovered, but, sadly, it appears to be desperate to show that it has. Indeed, several reports from the field claim that EDA vendors are avidly discounting tools and even offering all-you-can-eat-buffet licensing to their biggest customers, further delaying the industry's recovery.

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But perhaps the biggest sign of desperation occurred too quietly in October 2005, when the EDAC's MSS (Market Statistics Service) quietly issued second-quarter earnings claiming that industry revenue was flat (Reference 1). For the first time, EDAC didn't offer a spokesman to comment on the quarter. That exception should have been the first indicator that something was fishy with MSS' account of the quarter. A closer look at the release shows that true EDA, which comprises tools, maintenance, and services (in a good year), is in fact down; roughly 20% of $1.09 billion in EDA revenue for the quarter came from IP (intellectual-property) revenue, not traditional EDA.

It is as if EDAC had simply decided that, if traditional EDA isn't going to recover soon, it will just expand the definition of EDA. The worst part isn't that EDAC MSS is reporting the revenue traditional EDA companies also gain in their side IP businesses; it's that the organization now counts revenue from pure-play IP companies, such as MIPS Technologies, as EDA.

It's sad that EDAC has had to stoop so low as to so overtly manipulate the numbers. It is even worse that the industry press, which actively reports industry earnings, regurgitated the press release and didn't question MSS' numbers. If the EDA industry wants to turn the tide, it should stop dealing out marketing bull, take a realistic look at the state of its business, and address the weak points. Look below for my list of advice. I'd be happy to hear your suggestions, too, for what I deem an essential but painfully misrepresented industry. E-mail me at michael.santarini@reedbusiness.com.

Seven issues the EDA industry needs to address:

  1. Put innovation and customers first, not Wall Street. If you innovate and make a product that’s worthwhile, revenue will follow, the Street will follow, and, investors may be pleased.

  2. Don’t sell yourself and the industry short. EDA is a difficult field and should warrant a premium price. If EDA is imploding, it is largely because companies hit the panic button and began offering customers all-you-can-eat-buffet licensing. Although you may be hitting your numbers in the short term, in the end, you are doing a disservice to yourself and the industry, dissuading start-ups from innovating and venture capitalists from funding them. In the long run, this approach also hurts customers.

  3. Big companies need to embrace start-ups and the growth-by-acquisition strategy. Most big EDA companies believe that, if they stop paying 10 times more revenue for EDA start-ups, EDA entrepreneurs will work for the big EDA vendors and innovate in-house. The fact is that most big EDA innovations come from start-ups. Again, EDA is a difficult and highly specialized field. The biggest tool innovations usually start with one grad student devoting his entire academic life to solving one problem. Architects at most big EDA companies are too busy upgrading yesterday’s tools to think deeply about tomorrow’s problems. Thus, if you don’t support the start-up model, you’re killing the industry’s future.

  4. The EDAC (EDA Consortium) should not confuse IP (intellectual property) with EDA. Please, get rid of IP in MSS (Market Statistics Service) reports and compare apples-to-apples numbers—good, old EDA. If a governing body were looking into your statistics, you’d have some explaining to do. Maybe MSS could create a separate report for the IP industry if it is that desperate for new sources of member funding.

  5. A lot of people think lawsuits hurt the EDA industry when, in fact, stealing does more damage. Stop stealing and stop complaining when EDA companies sue other companies for taking their property. Avanti Chief Executive Officer Gerry Hsu set a precedent that you can build a company on stolen property, use that stolen property to get a head start on the competition, and, even if the courts find you guilty, walk away a multimillionaire. Vendors shouldn’t encourage this practice, and, after the courts have handed down a decision, consumers shouldn’t, either. (If you think IP theft is no big deal, wait a few years; chances are that it will likely hurt you, too).

  6. Embrace the esoteric aspect of the EDA industry. The business press doesn’t understand EDA, because EDA is too esoteric. If the business press one day begins to understand EDA, it likely means you aren’t doing your jobs well enough. Or, perhaps one day, it will mean that EDA has grown large enough to accommodate another analyst and perhaps an opposing opinion to Gary Smith’s group at Gartner-Dataquest, which is currently the only analyst group covering EDA.

  7. EDA needs to work on a new slogan. When I moved from EE Times to EDN, I picked up the FPGA beat and was surprised to learn that the FPGA industry posts lower revenue than the EDA industry and has more than five industry analysts covering it. Maybe EDAC can leverage that data point and take pride in the fact that EDA posts higher revenue while getting only half the business-press coverage the FPGA industry gets. In fact, if EDAC wants to shelve the slogan “EDA: where electronics begins,” it should replace it with “Did you know we’re bigger than the FPGA industry?” Better yet, instead of always coming across as the forgotten child of the electronics family, EDA should adopt a haughty attitude and slogan to match—maybe something like “We’re way above your head!” That’s sure to grab some attention.

 


Reference
  1. www.edac.org/downloads/pressreleases/05-10-05_MSS_Q2_2005_Release.pdf.


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