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Fab spending to hit bottom by Q4, rebound in 2009, SEMI says
The regions most dramatically reflecting the trend are Southeast Asia and Taiwan, which SEMI said will likely experience declines of 40 and 33% respectively this year, but are expected to recover in 2009 with significant positive growth of more than 50 and 80% respectively.
By Ann Steffora Mutschler, Senior Editor -- Electronic News, 5/28/2008
As more semiconductor makers are forced to postpone fab projects due to global economic uncertainties, spending on worldwide fabs equipping is expected to drop by approximately 17% this year, followed by a more than 12% rebound in growth in 2009, according to industry association Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI)’s world fab forecast.
The regions most dramatically reflecting the trend are Southeast Asia and Taiwan, which SEMI said will likely experience declines of 40 and 33% respectively this year, but are expected to recover in 2009 with significant positive growth of more than 50 and 80% respectively, SEMI reported.
In the Americas, SEMI expects fab equipment spending to decline over the next two years, while China and the Europe/Mideast are expected to see growth during both years, and spending in Japan and South Korea is projected to remain slow, with improvement from negative double digits in 2008, to negative single digits in 2009.
SEMI said the biggest three spenders in 2008 for equipping fabs are Samsung, Flash Alliance and Intel. Although most semiconductor manufacturers are investing in non-US fabs opportunities, Samsung is making significant investment into its 300-mm megafabs in Austin, Texas, while Intel continues to invest in its Arizona and New Mexico fabs. Next year, Rexchip, TSMC, UMC, Promos and Hynix are expected to join Samsung, Flash Alliance and Intel as key spenders on fab equipping, SEMI said.
In terms of regional construction of new fabs, only Southeast Asia and South Korea are expected to show positive growth this year with Southeast Asia showing greater than 160% growth in spending on fab construction projects, thanks to IM Flash's plan for a new megafab in Singapore.
Finally, after about 17% capacity growth in 2007, SEMI projects global fab capacity to slow slightly, but then post high single to low double-digit growth over the next two years, with the overall capacity of volume fabs for 300-mm expected to surpass 200-mm capacity by Q3.
Looking ahead, capacity for 200-mm volume fabs is expected to remain at the same level, while capacity for 300-mm volume fabs is expected to grow consistently in the double digits with over 2.5 times less fabs, SEMI concluded.
