News and New Products
Voices: Chip design in recession: a view from an ASIC consolidator
Chip design in recession: changing times, changing models, and what they might all mean for designers.
By Ron Wilson, Executive Editor -- EDN, 3/19/2009
There is no question that the recession, no matter what its future, is profoundly changing IC design. Investment patterns are changing, imposing huge and wrenching changes on engineers. And there are signs that the underlying models of the industry—integrated-device manufacturers, fabless-IC companies, and foundries—may change as well before we get through these trying times. Jack Harding, veteran of the design-automation and ASIC businesses and now at the helm of eSilicon, recently discussed changing times, changing models, and what they might all mean for designers.
What do you mean when you say that business models are in transition?
We’re seeing executives revisiting all forms of fixed costs on their income statements. These are often companies that have already decided to go fabless, have outsourced back-end design, and [trimmed] their design teams. Now, they are starting to look at operations costs.
If a company is doing one chip design every 18 months, why would [it] keep an operations staff on the payroll? That [move] would be like keeping a full-time staff for mergers and acquisitions. So, we are seeing executives starting to ask, “Can someone take over production management for us?”
This [problem] is not just a financial matter. If you have one chip going into production every 18 months, your production engineers and operations managers aren’t getting enough experience to stay on their learning curves. That’s not good for the company or for the engineers. You need to shift these activities to someone who can achieve economies of scale.
We are basically an aggregator, but maybe we are best known as a fabless-ASIC company. Because we handle lots of designs per month, we very quickly get up the learning curve on back-end design of new nodes. Instead of each new design’s being a new experience, we are able to develop a fairly automated methodology at a new node. We are doing mostly 40- and 45-nm designs, for instance. At this stage, we are tuning the methodology to a manufacturing experience: working on yield and reliability optimization, where we can and cannot compromise with the foundry on design rules—things that come from experience.
But customers have taken us beyond just the design space. Because we are such a large customer to the foundries we work with, we have economies of scale and influence, and we are also skilled in managing product life cycles. As fabless companies understand this point, they see the possibility of changing the business model.
Basically, we can offer to take over responsibility for production on an existing product, deliver the chips to you at the price you have today, and meet the goals on your cost-reduction road map. And we can make money doing that.
In addition to looking at outsourcing operations, are you seeing the fabless-semi companies and system houses looking for other economies, such as postponing designs?
We are seeing every possible form of cash conservation. Companies are taking designs to RTL [register-transfer-level] freeze and then shelving them. They are delaying tape-outs. They are cutting wafer orders. The paradox of all this is that we as an industry are managing our resources better than we ever have before, but we are still seeing the worst situation.
The good news is that, because of all the attention the industry has paid to inventories since the Internet bubble, we may be in a better position than in the past. Companies we talk to expect to purge their inventories in one to three quarters, not two years.
And design doesn’t come to a stop. Companies are still conducting R&D, and they are still doing algorithm development. One thing that might change, though, is the shocking amount of overdesign that has been common in the industry. Design teams may have used 65 nm for a design that would have worked just fine in 90 nm. They might have specified 600 MHz just for head room when the requirements were only 450 MHz. We may see a lot of that overdesign evaporating now as companies try to reduce their NRE [nonrecurring-expense] levels.
Reducing NRE—that must be music to the ears of FPGA companies.
You know, this is the fourth major recession since the introduction of FPGAs, and their use model still hasn’t changed. They are still a small fraction of the size of the ASIC/SOC [application-specific-integrated-circuit/system-on-chip] business. I think perhaps some people have misunderstood that [idea] because chip-design starts have been dropping, but that drop has been primarily because, with increased integration, one SOC will do what 10 ASICs used to do. The drop is not primarily because of FPGAs’ displacement of ASICs.
Reality is that, today, if you can reduce the cost of a chip by 50 cents, that is justification enough to replace it in the bill of materials. In that kind of environment, you are not going to pay a huge premium for an FPGA.
Do you see the recession accelerating dispersal of design teams around the world?
No. Design teams will continue to outsource portions of the design, but we maintain that at a certain level of complexity, proximity of the lead engineers to each other and to the customer is absolutely vital. Dispersing tasks to outlying teams works only when there will be only low interactivity with the remote team and little or no customer involvement in that portion of the design.
And ASIC consolidators can offer that benefit?What role do new trends in design automation, such as system-level design, have in reducing costs for design teams?
I think that the classical notion of system-level design as a sort of ESL-[electronic-system-level]-description-to-silicon translator is out of reach, at least in a relevant time frame. Instead, what we are seeing is increased demand for more information about the physical design at RTL time. I think the real future is to move the tough physical-design decisions forward in the design process.
Another area is analog design. Today, analog is still art; it’s the domain of the smart-guy model of engineering. And the difficulty of analog design impedes adoption of advanced process nodes. But we believe that some analog automation—for instance, something similar to automated place-and-route tools in the digital domain—is coming and will help with the cost of analog design.















