PC shipments back on the rise

On a regional basis, both Gartner and IDC said the United States showed the largest percentage of PC shipment growth.

By Suzanne Deffree, Managing Editor, News -- Electronic News, 10/15/2009

Both Gartner Inc and IDC this week reported increases in Q3 PC shipments, a welcomed sign of continuing recovery for the electronics industry.

According to Gartner, the PC industry performed better than expected as worldwide PC shipments totaled 80.9 million units in the September quarter, a 0.5% increase from Q3 2008. Gartner had expected PC shipments to decline 5.6% in the quarter.

“These are good results especially given that PC shipments for the third quarter of 2009 are being compared to a very strong third quarter from 2008,” said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner, in a statement. “Sequentially, third quarter shipments grew 18 percent, which is higher than the historical seasonal growth from the second to third quarter.”

Kitagawa said that the consumer market continued to lead unit shipment growth, driven by low priced mobile PCs. However, she cautioned that, “Ongoing price declines continue to be a major issue in the PC industry. PC vendor performance cannot be determined solely by unit market share gains alone as related revenues and margin performance are key to surviving in very competitive market.”

Meanwhile, according to IDC data, global PC shipments rose 2.3% year over year in Q3. The estimated gain offered stark contrast to year-over-year declines of 6.8% in Q1 and 2.4% in Q2. IDC reported that all regions except Japan either met or surpassed expectations and that portable PCs continue to account for the majority of volume and growth, with mini notebooks (netbooks) still making a substantial contribution.

“Despite the ongoing mix of gloom and caution on the economic front, the PC market continues to rebound quickly,” said Loren Loverde, program director for IDC’s Tracker Program, in a statement.

Loverde noted that the competitive landscape, the transition to portables, new and low-power designs, growth in retail and consumer segments, and the impact of falling prices all contributed to overall market growth.

“The continued strength of both the US and worldwide PC business in the face of difficult economic environments underscores the value that both consumer and corporate buyers place on PCs,” Bob O’Donnell, VP of clients and displays at IDC, said in the company’s statement. “With the forthcoming launch of Windows 7 and expected commercial refresh beginning in 2010, the prospects for future PC market growth are very solid.”

As to Windows 7, Gartner analysts said the launch should have a minimal impact on PC unit growth. However, they noted that inventory adjustments around the launch could artificially affect shipment volumes during Q3 and Q4.

"Recent OS releases have not been a growth driver in the PC market, however the timing of Windows 7’s is favorable for the industry due to expected economic improvements and an overdue hardware replacement cycle,” Kitagawa said. “We anticipate renewed interest in hardware upgrades from consumers and small business during the holiday season as a result Windows 7’s release. In the corporate market, Windows 7 adoption is not expected to ramp up until late 2010."

On a regional basis, both Gartner and IDC said the United States showed the largest percentage of growth. Gartner estimated US Q3 PC shipments at 17.8 million units, a 3.9% year-over-year increase. IDC estimated Q3 PC shipments at 17.5 million units, a 2.5% year-over-year increase.

The two research companies also agreed that in terms of worldwide shipments HP was the number 1 vendor in Q3. According to Gartner, HP shipped 16.12 million units in Q3 for a 19.9% market share and 9% year-over-year growth in shipments. According to IDC, HP shipped 15.789 million units last quarter for 20.2% share of the market and a 9.3% year-over-year increase in shipments.

Both Gartner and IDC pegged Acer as the second place OEM based on shipments, outpacing third place Dell, fourth place Lenovo, and fifth place Toshiba. 

Intel Corp, for one, has been enjoying this return to PC shipment growth. After the company in late August increased its revenue expectations based on increased MPU and chipset demand, brought in part by the healing PC market, the company this week announced Q3 sales of $9.4 billion that beat its raised expectations, noting traditional notebook and netbook strength. Intel also forecasted for 23% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4.