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Blog
Thursday, June 8, 2006
Will Satellite Radio Last?
Jun 8 2006 10:35AM | Permalink |Comments (28) |
Satellite radio has made great strides in the past two years with many auto makers building it into car radios as another channel. Sirius promises to add 2.8 million subscribers this year, bringing the total of 6.2 million. XM Radio recently revised its subscriber guidance down from 9 to 8.5 million by year end. We had XM for three months free in a new car we bought in December, but did not convert the service to $12.95 month. After all, how many things can you listen in the car, satellite radio's primary venue? Will customers be willing to pay for satelllite radio month after month? Both companies have lost scads of money ramping up satellite radio and their stocks have been hammered in the past six months.
Reader Comments
at 6/8/2006 1:42:51 PM, Piense El Tanque said:
I dont know if it will last, but my wife loves her Sirius! She listens to it all the time. I like the talk radio aspect of it as we live in a rural area, but have not put it in my car as I prefer to be my own "DJ".
at 6/8/2006 1:59:49 PM, Charlie said:
I love my Sirius and plan to add a few more suscriptions befor the end of the year.
Will it last?
I certainly hope so, because terrestrial radio cannot come close!
With SIRIUS you really can have your cake, and eat it too!
at 6/8/2006 2:30:59 PM, BillyDKid said:
Yes it will last. It will prosper just as cable TV has prospered for the past 40+ years. Once video is added, what soccer mom in her right mind would not want live Disney in the backseat. Sirius will prosper ...
at 6/8/2006 3:12:47 PM, Plowboy1 said:
Are you insane ?
Thinking people, once having satrad ( especially Sirius since xm sucks ) will NEVER go back to CD's or Terrad. I'd pay $20.00 per month just for commerical free music.
at 6/8/2006 3:14:14 PM, Motor City said:
I would take it in the butt before I'd dump my Sirius. yes, I'm serious.
at 6/9/2006 3:26:49 AM, FM? Don't make me laugh! said:
Sirius satellite radio has made my job of which 40% of my day is spent in my vehicle, so much more relaxing, less stressful, and actually cheers me up. I love the Stern show, the comedy channels, the TV news channels, and the numerous rock stations. My wife loves the rock and the country stations. Comparing satellite radio to terrestrial radio is like comparing the automobile to a horse drawn buggy. Those that demand more will want satellite radio.
at 6/9/2006 8:36:24 AM, Austin Guy said:
Routinely drive the 20 hours back and forth to FL. Sirius is a God-send! Ever try chasing down the public radio stations as they change across a 1000 miles of driving? Only some much C&W music you can handle. No going back to broadcast radio now.
at 6/9/2006 8:51:22 AM, jeff said:
will it go away? Idiot! with XM standing alone 2nd only to the adoption rate of CD's, who in their right mind writes an article like this? And what evedence is used to back it up? the take rate for XM/GM? Churn numbers? Just wait till everone figures out that the two companys count churn extreemly differently due to free protional periods and the truth comes out that even though Sirius has an actual higher churn than XM, they are both well below any other churn rates for any subscription service. I think the writer of this article should post the article next to the tiolet so it can be used in a manner that's fitting for its content.
at 6/9/2006 9:35:15 AM, Thx XM INNO said:
I love my XM Inno. I have close to 25 hours of recorded music. I ((rec)) while I sleep and delete the songs that I don't like the next morning. I can replace those songs any time for the same flat fee of 9.99/month. I can listen to fresh feed news, sports, comedy too. XM radio is the next radio of AMERICA. It is the best with it's 170 channels and 69 commercial free stations. XM Inno is AWESOME.
at 6/9/2006 9:56:50 AM, Beth said:
I had XM in my Pontiac and I did not renew. I felt like I lost my Best Friend and I renewed my subscription as fast as I could. Now I enjoy Tom Petty's show as well as Bob Dylan's show just as much as Opie and Anthony in the mornings. XM is here to stay no matter what a short sighted writer puts in print.
at 6/9/2006 10:00:04 AM, leavenfish said:
The sound is so much better than FM in my car. The content is awesome (I subscribe to XM...Sirius is fine too)...I love my satellite radio!
at 6/9/2006 10:05:46 AM, linda said:
XM 80's on 8 is the best ever. No place anywhere on the FM dial can I find this. I will never go back. I will also never go with sirius since they paid that bastard Howard Stern 620 million dollars. I will not support someone I do not find funny.
at 6/9/2006 10:37:43 AM, Max said:
I have heard and purchaced the CD of many new bands that I have heard on XM and not anyplace else. Why would the RIAA even think of filing a lawsuit against any Sat Rad provider?
at 6/9/2006 11:14:17 AM, donutsdad said:
I love when people continue to ask if people will continue to pay when its CLEARLY evident with over 10 MILLION YES answers already....the only reason XM and SIRI arent profitable is JOe Claytons feeling that he had to give 600 MILLION dollars to just one guy and his team....at BEST it was break even ..but it gave them 2 years of free PR which is priceless...
at 6/9/2006 11:15:06 AM, XM is the best said:
XM and sat radio has brought music back into my life.
You can take "free" radio and..........
at 6/9/2006 11:17:30 AM, subscriptions said:
If something wasn't going to last wouldn't there be a heck of alot of people cancelling their subscriptions? Read into the company's and find that around 1% are dropping sat radio. Sounds good to me!
at 6/9/2006 11:48:49 AM, george said:
is this internet rag in bed with the NAB? The same people complaining to congeress about indecency on a pay service? The continues attacks on all of sat rad are sad .. quite sad.
at 6/9/2006 3:20:55 PM, Dodge John said:
Well, folks. Maybe I am wrong. I was thinking I'm already on overload and don't need more channels in the car. But apparently you guys do and are willing to pay for it. Gob Bless ya all.
at 6/9/2006 3:21:03 PM, Dodge John said:
Well, folks. Maybe I am wrong. I was thinking I'm already on overload and don't need more channels in the car. But apparently you guys do and are willing to pay for it. Gob Bless ya all.
at 6/12/2006 2:18:56 AM, xmmagic8ball said:
When some one writes an article that is so fin stupid (as shown by your reader repsonses) and based on nothing but one allegedly annectodal data point the editors of this site should real investigate if your father is the CEO of Clear Channel or if you just took money from them or are congentitally stupid or just lazy. Which is it?
at 6/12/2006 2:23:57 AM, xmmagic8ball said:
PS I have interviewed 5000 people with OEM and 70% disagree with you (my interviews are mainy people who own shoes so that may be the problem--are you from Mayberry RFD Gomer?) and they are more satified with sat rad then any other pay service they have, they report that they stop listening to CD's and MP3's. Those that are in the 30% simply say they are in the car under 10 minutes a day on average or older and never figured out how to work the OEM radio. The first will be cured by the Inno the latter over time by great awareness. The great thing about the internet is some goof can make a nice site and look like a big deal with nothing but hot air behind it.
Congrats you ahve had your 15 minutes of fame among the one eared folks.
at 6/12/2006 2:24:42 AM, xmmagic8ball said:
PS I have interviewed 5000 people with OEM and 70% disagree with you (my interviews are mainy people who own shoes so that may be the problem--are you from Mayberry RFD Gomer?) and they are more satified with sat rad then any other pay service they have, they report that they stop listening to CD's and MP3's. Those that are in the 30% simply say they are in the car under 10 minutes a day on average or older and never figured out how to work the OEM radio. The first will be cured by the Inno the latter over time by great awareness. The great thing about the internet is some goof can make a nice site and look like a big deal with nothing but hot air behind it.
Congrats you ahve had your 15 minutes of fame among the one eared folks.
at 6/12/2006 7:36:54 AM, Walkin' Dude said:
Why don't all you folks who live in your automobiles get a life!? Pull out the ear buds. Go outside. Take a walk. Smell the fresh air. No wonder we're running out of gasoline. You're all driving around listening to satellite radio.
at 6/12/2006 10:09:40 AM, Portable XM said:
Hey Walkin' Dude, XM offers a number of portable units and home kits as well. So not all of us are "driving around listening to satellite radio". Sure, I listen while I drive back and forth to work, but I also listen while working outside or walking.
at 6/16/2006 2:12:30 PM, Craig said:
Quote from Charlie earlier:
Terrestrial radio can't come close to Sat radio...(paraphrasing). That may be true but cable TV was the same way...BUT look at it now. We all PAY for TV and we still get commercials and basic network rules. That wasn't the case originally for cable, but they "mainstreamed". I hope sat. radio doesn't do the same...
at 8/21/2006 7:44:45 AM, shuffm said:
It will last, but XMSR and SIRI will have to merge, or one of the services will have to go under.
XMSR's stock is going to get completely hammered. Insiders will pull out, and so will institutions. It has a crapload of institutional investors.
SIRI is gaining marketshare, has very little inside or institutional investment. It's stock is already in the crapper, but on it's own...it still has some of the scariest annual and quarterly reports I've ever seen.
Both companies are complete crap on paper....they're gushing billions...with increasing losses each year. They don't even make enough profit to pay the interest on their debt. They're out of cash. Nobody's going to lend them money, they can't issue more stock, and they can't buy each other. Nobody else has a business that could buy them either...because pretty much...ads drive revenue.
SIRI is the better of the two. Satellite radio has an intense base of subscribers who are obviously loyal (and judging from one of the posts insanely loyal).
There IS an intrinsic value to satellite radio. It is worth something, but the acquisition costs of subscribers have to be lowered and the subscriber base has to be dramatically increased. Neither company can do this on its own.
Take a Netflix for example. Their stock jumped when all they did was decide to put ads on their DVD sleeves. It's all about ads.
There can be commercial free programming as a part of a commercialized media format. HBO is commercial free. Time Warner which owns HBO is not. Disney Channel is basically commercial-free. ABC, ESPN, etc. which is owned by Disney is not.
Not having commericals is only one feature of satellite radio. It's a big one, but I'd bet that subscribers would acquiesce to some commercials for some of the programming to keep the sound quality, type of programming, and other cool features you can get from satellite radio.
Do I really care if there is a commercial after the two minute warning...there already is on TV. Besides, most guys who watch football probably have another game on or one that they'll flip to. Same thing for radio. If the features of SIRI for example can at least let me listen to the music I want to without having to constantly be hitting buttons as I drive...then that's a heck of a lot better than standard radio. And, if they can keep shows like Howard Stern isolated from sponsors...he can be as revolting as he wants to be.
However, neither of these two services will pull the trigger on ads first. That would be suicide. But, as soon as they merge or one goes under...they could get away with it very easily...especially if they reduced the price.
I say no company could buy them, because I believe doing so would hammer the acquiring company's stock. They'd be too afraid. Not to mention, anybody in any related sector of business is concerned with ads. You even have to watch ads when you pay $10 to see a movie!!!
One of these companies should last, and I'd bet it's SIRI. Buying their stock would be purely speculative and based on the idea that they will merge with XMSR or find a way to outlast XMSR....and this is only true if SIRI can keep gaining marketshare from XMSR. If XMSR can regain ground, I think they have a better chance.
Or, it is a speculation that ads are inevitable.
Or, it is a speculation that one very stupid company will buy one of them.
It is a coin toss.
SIRI $0 or $8???
Then you have the macroeconomic picture to think of. Higher gas prices mean less subscribers. Any type of recession means less subscribers. The outlook on the economy is very uncertain. These companies cannot weather an economic downturn.
I don't own either of the stocks. I don't subscribe to either service. I am not a professional investor.
I am considering subscribing to SIRI for NFL and English Premier League Soccer...as well as the ability to have a unit that I can set up at home....because I rarely spend any time in the car. I do hate commericals though.
I just find having an iPod much better for now. I can subscribe to radio programs that are basically commercial-free, like Jim Cramer's 'Real Money.' Then I can listen to them any time I want to. I can pay $0.99 for a song, copy my CDs, make playlists, and listen to whatever I want and when I want...commercial free...and you can listen to them in the car, too. There's where the competition to these companies is coming from...downloadable and streaming media. Apple doesn't need to advertise because they're making plenty of cash elsewhere. Celebrities and special channels owned by other companies don't need to advertise because they're promoting themselves or the channel as a "brand." Again...it all gets down to branding, advertising, and cross-promotions. That's what the media is all about.
Will satellite radio last? Yeah, probably. There will be radio eminating from a satellite signal. There will be lots of programming options and features.
Will commercial-free satellite radio last? I have no idea.
at 8/27/2006 12:04:00 AM, flacksterRWC said:
Well, I think we've heard from thse who have already subscribed to satellite radio services, but what about those who haven't? I can't help but think of those who bought Iridium phones that now serve as expensive paperweights. I've become a big fan of podcasts. Down load the latest stuff, make a playlist on the ipod mixing them with my favorite tunes, plug it into the car and I get pretty much the same thing: commercial free radio. So why do I need to pay for it every month? Especially from a service that's hemorraghing cash and may not be able to survive much longer. It just seems to be a risky nvestment to me.
at 10/27/2006 10:58:33 AM, fit2fly said:
Why is this still even a question? Of course SATRAD is here to stay! For .33 cents a day you get no commercials on 70 plus music channels. In addition more sports and news you could ever get on terrestrial. With the high adoption rate and OEM deals why do people still not believe it its a viable service. Again.....this should sum it up. For .33 cents a day you don't have to waste your precious time and life being a perpetual flipper!
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