PowerSource

BP Statistical Review of World Energy released a report that estimated there are enough world petroleum reserves to last for 40 years, assuming we consume at our current rates. The article notes that in the 1980’s the amount of proven reserves was also 40 years. 20 years go by, consumption rates change, new customers change, new oil fields are found, old ones produce more, and voila, is we’re good to go for another 40 years of oil.

Pssh. So many things will change in the next 40 years – non-petroleum-powered cars, government regulations on green-house gas, etc – that trying to predict that far out is mostly useless. But the exercise itself is worthwhile because of all the key points it brings out. Such as:

--Two-thirds of oil reserves are in the Middle East.

--The fossil fuel that’s seen the fastest increase in consumption is coal, because that’s the kind of power stations that are being built in China. And yes, burning coal creates more grenn-house emissions than any other form of energy.

--The world's proven reserves of natural gas rose slightly, and are enough to provide more than 60 years of current consumption.

--There is a theory held by some economist that oil is already at its peak. Not so, says BP. "We don't believe there is an absolute resource constraint. When peak oil comes, it is just as likely to come from consumption peaking, perhaps because of climate change policies or for some other reason, as from production peaking."