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Ron WilsonEDN Executive Editor Ron Wilson explores how IC design teams really work: the struggle for power efficiency and performance, wrestling with semiconductor processes and design methodologies, the challenges of global design teams. How do we somehow herd architecture, IP, design and verification into a successful tape-out?



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Thursday, October 16, 2008

So if this is a recession, where are the opportunities?

Oct 16 2008 4:16PM | Permalink |Comments (4) |


I don't suppose there's much debate now that we are going into a serious recession. Even the US economy can't vaporize this much wealth and soldier on as if nothing had happened. Especially the US economy, with its severely over-extended consumers, huge trade deficit, tenuous hold on manufacturing, and crumbling infrastructure, is not going to go on without changes. At the very least, one presumes, the US will see markedly lower consumer activity until consumers have paid down their unsecured personal debt, have some confidence about staying in their homes, and have some plausible scenario for health care and retirement. People are just too frightened right now to tramp out and start shopping.

So where does that leave the heavily consumer-dependent semiconductor industry? The bad news part of the answer is obvious enough to not require much elaboration—we aren't going to need to design or build parts for toys that consumers aren't going to buy. But there are good-news parts to the answer as well. One of these was nicely illustrated by a recent conversation with Kazu Yamada, vice president and general manager of the custom SoC solutions business unit at NEC Electronics America.

NEC, like pretty much everyone else in the ASIC business, has been seeing a general decline in design starts. Part of Yamada's strategy has been to find emerging segments in which ASICs have a natural advantage over their alternatives, and specifically over FPGAs. Since NEC has not focused on the extreme high-end of the SoC business, simply outrunning FPGAs on speed and density wasn't the best answer. Instead, Yamada chose to talk about applications that require very high energy efficiency.

To most people that would mean mobile consumer devices, which would leave NEC spiraling into the black hole of vanishing consumer spending. But that's not what Yamada has in mind. Rather, he sees opportunities to exploit low-power processes in—ironically enough—power generation and distribution. So why would a facility that is creating or transferring power need low-power electronics? The answer is kind of interesting.

On the generation side, Yamada is looking at photovoltaics. "Today, there is so much variation among photovoltaic panels from the same vendor that you cannot connect them in parallel—you would end up applying voltage to the weakest panels," Yamada explained. "So you have to connect them in series, and then the weakest panels limit the output."

Yamada said the solution is to integrate digital intelligence and a solid-state regulator into each panel, so that the panels have uniform output. To be a net gain for the system, this module has to have extremely high efficiency—a high-efficiency regulator and almost zero-energy digital stuff.

Another example Yamada offered was load control. In the power grid of the future, individual consumers would be able to sell surplus power from their windmills or PV panels back into the grid, and conversely, the distributor would be able to shed low-priority loads as necessary to balance the network. In this scenario the lowly Watt meter on the side of the house becomes a mini switching center, interacting through an RF link or a power-line network with the system operator's control facility on one side, and with the controllers on individual generators and appliances on the other side.

This creates a demand for custom chips that combine ARM-7-level computing with a full range of networking capabilities, but at very low power. And the scenario puts a premium on security, since the consumer is in effect giving a public network access to every electrical device in or on his house, and the electric company is performing metering and billing over the same public network. But once again efficiency is of the essence—the less energy consumed by the control electronics, the finer-grained the control you can exercise, and the greater the network-level returns. So there is plenty of scope for challenging low-power design involved.

This conversation has become more interesting in the couple of weeks since it took place. Then we were facing uncertain times. Now, we appear to be on the brink of a prolonged recession patterned on the one Japan experienced beginning in the early '90s. One of the most plausible of the solutions that have been proposed is to stimulate demand through infrastructure spending—not unlike one of Japan's countermeasures. Modernizing the archaic US power grid certainly falls in the category of infrastructure spending that would both create jobs and have a positive RoI. That would put Yamada's ideas about adding low-power intelligence to the power grid in a sweet spot, not in the accretion disk of the black hole. Maybe we can learn some things from the Japanese experience.


Related entries in: ASICs | Business and Marketing | SOC (System on a chip) | 


Reader Comments



at 10/17/2008 4:44:37 PM, Jeff said:
Power conversion is a bigger market that even power generation when it comes to alternative energy and actual business model margins. The example cited is only part of it.

Also considering the duty cycles, voltage and current levels of any alternative energy source and it is instantly apparent that nothing fits out-of-the-box in terms of interconnection and energy roll-up or transfer.

The raw sources all need some type of conversion and/or storage. Batteries and super capacitors are the obvious targets for storage but there are inefficiencies that can best be handled through switching power conversion and intelligent monitoring.

Then there is conversion to usable, common form. Typically that is 50/60 Hz AC but we should be questioning whether that even makes sense if you are generating and consuming locally.

For example why upconvert to AC when that same power will be downconverted back to DC again inside the appliance? A more systematic use, design and standard of appliance-internal system DC is really needed along with system considerations in power supply designs that consider DC sources.

It probably makes more sense to use 48VDC locally as a common interchange definition. And where are the consumer products, residential adaptors wiring or design tools for that? These need to be created by someone (engineers in the collective sense not some specific company).

Also I think we need to rethink the standard presumption that electricity, once generated, can't be stored and must be used. That might be the case for centrally generated, high power electricity but it's not strictly true for distributed generation.

Further the power spatial density (W/m^2) for alternative sources comes relatively close to residential power spatial density for residential consumption (typically within an order of magnitude).

Area is the available real estate for power generation technology and human habitation area using the power, respectively. So for example if you could put solar panels over the same roof that is used for power used by habitation, you really don't have a need to intertie beyond power availability insurance.

This says that we can both improve overall system reliability and increase alternative energy usage through systematic decentralization of electrical power generation.

Centralized power consumers would still need centralized power suppliers and there'd also be a need for available insurance but that would already be handled by the fact we have to transition anyway and thus the intertie option would already be available as a practical matter.

This suggests the role of power companies probably needs to change and do so in a way that allows a reasonable business model but does not create the power to allow them to threaten long-term sustainability.



at 10/17/2008 5:26:36 PM, ron said:
Jeff:
I hope that these changes can happen as the result of analyses as good as yours, and not in response to legislation or blind market forces.
ron



at 10/20/2008 6:25:25 AM, George said:
Hey Ron,

By definition, market forces are not "blind." They are the aggregate of free individuals creating and trading value with each other. The alternative to market forces is ultimately slavery.



at 10/20/2008 7:07:30 AM, arclight said:
The comment about 48 VDC power is absolutely on target. There's a whole world of opportunity in that space: (a) How will standard connectors be designed? (b) How will overcurrent be handled so we don't have to design for fault currents to trip breakers? Are we looking at DC regulators that can snap into a panel and down-regulate to a specific voltage and current level? (c) Can we maintain the "plug in anywhere" design philosophy that is basically at the heart of residential and commercial electrical design?

Lots and lots of opportunity here...


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