Perspectives From the Leading Edge

We all knew that the economy wasn’t in great shape, but the daily dose of microelectronic industry layoffs is becoming depressing.

Applied Materials (1800), NEC (20,000), Renesas (2500), ST Micro (4500), TI (3400), IBM (3000), Intel (6000), AMD (1700), Rohm & Haas (2000), Motorola (4000), On Semi (2000), Lenovo (2500), ASML (1000), STATSChipPAC (1600)....the numbers are staggering. If you believe in the concept of “6 degrees of separation” all of us know some of these people and their families and feel badly for them.

Any of us who have spent time in management in major corporations know that this is also a corporations chance to “cut deep” and they will take advantage of it. The scenario goes something like this. Upper management knows that middle management does not like to lay people off. Unless someone is really not performing or is interfering with deliverables (i.e read middle management bonuses), those who are rated in the bottom quartile are generally left alone since middle management would just have to move someone else into the lower quartile and have those uncomfortable conversations with them as to why they are not top performers. But, management theory says that you should continually turn over employees, annually casting out those on the bottom of the performance list ( see actions of GE, for example). So whenever we hit a real bad economic downturn, like we are in now, this is the chance to “cut deep” and use the economy as an excuse for the terminations. Now I’m not saying that personnel reductions are not warranted in times like these, I’m just saying that major corporations take advantage of this time to cut deeper than necessary. As I have said, those who have worked in middle or upper management and who have had to make up these “contingency plans” for bottom quartile performers know what I’m talking about. It’s as American as baseball, hot dogs and apple pie....................

What’s ironic is that as soon as the downturn reverses, and additional personnel are required, unless your hiring only fresh out of school, you’ll end up hiring the people cast out by your competition !

The effect of this economy on 3D Integration ?

The answer to this is actually not as simple as one might think. At first glance the answer appears to be that R&D must be slowing down and certainly all new product introductions will be on hold till all this is over. Well, yes and no. Certainly each company has their own unique set of circumstances, but if we use the past as an example, these are times when strong companies intensify R&D on major breakthrough technologies so they will be ready to implement as soon as the downturn ends. That first period of 6 mos to a year when the economy is building up again is when market share is yours for the taking. Those with the new technologies and the new products will get the share.

Capex – is another issue. The current economy does mean that most will try to accomplish these new introductions in old facilities with current equipment ( now available since production has been cut back). Thus my 3D motto of “Evolution not Revolution” will be even stronger during this period and as we come out of it. For example, if you have no TSV etching equipment in place, do you go out and buy that now ?? or do you design some F2F, chip-on-chip (no TSV) 3D devices first, which will get you into the business without the capex expenditure ?? Enough said.......

In the last week I have heard someone from Micron say “...its really hard to keep the required monies focused on 3D in this atmosphere...but you know we have to find a way to do it cause I’m sure the competition is”. I’ve also heard from equipment suppliers that Intel is giving strong indications that ~ 25 nm is it, in terms of node reductions, and they are surer then ever that 3D will be the way to go in the future.

The Latest on Lasers for 3D

XSil

A few months ago we expressed concern over the continued operation of XSil [ PFTLE, “Memory Market headed South...Will SSD lead the recovery ?”, 10/19/2008]. Although they never said it publicly, I’m pretty sure from examining SEMs (and some insider Samsung info) that the well published Samsung memory stacks were done with XSil based laser drilling. In December the Irish Times reported that all staff of the company, were layed off, without pay. As of early January the Irish Times reports XSil has been in negotiation to sell the firm’s technology. My read is that XSil no longer exists. Hopefully the technology will end up with a company that can take advantage of it. Anyone with different or further info....let me know. So is laser processing technology for TSV now gone ???

Tamarack

Tamarack has been supplying lithography equipment to the industry since 1966. Their first projection laser ablation systems were delivered in 1987.

They are now introducing picosecond lasers as the newest generation of micromachining lasers. These ultra short pulse lasers reportedly have little thermal side effects like burrs and microcracks (see below) and are optimized to drill thin materials up to a few mm thick with aspect ratios from 1:1 to 10:1 (see figure below). Materials can be selectively removed by choice of wavelength.

Those interested in laser drilling of TSV should give Tamarack a call. If you think like I do, your wondering whether the XSil technology, in fact, ended up with Tamarack.......I certainly have no information that would substantiate that....yet.

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