Brian's Brain

For the past two weeks, cyberspace has been abuzz with speculation, leading up to Monday's Apple WWDC (Worldwide Developer Conference), about Apple's rumoured upcoming embrace of the x86 CPU architecture. Things got rolling two Mondays ago, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal. "The computer maker has been in talks that could lead to a decision soon to use Intel Corp. chips in its Macintosh computer line, industry executives say, a prospect that may shake up the world of computers and software".

Last night came the second bombshell, this time from CNET. "Apple Computer plans to announce Monday that it's scrapping its partnership with IBM and switching its computers to Intel's microprocessors, CNET News.com has learned. Apple has used IBM's PowerPC processors since 1994, but will begin a phased transition to Intel's chips, sources familiar with the situation said. Apple plans to move lower-end computers such as the Mac Mini to Intel chips in mid-2006 and higher-end models such as the Power Mac in mid-2007".

Apple-on-Intel is a rumour that's been periodically floated by various pundits for years. Based primarily on that fact, I dismissed it when I read the initial WSJ report that came out on May 23^rd. In-between it and yesterday's CNET report, though, was one more tidbit that tweaked my interest, again from the Wall Street Journal. On the 24^th, at the D: All Things Digital conference, Intel's new CEO Paul Otellini was being harangued by Walt Mossberg about PC security issues. "Mr. Otellini had a startling confession: He spends an hour a weekend removing spyware from his daughter's computer. And when further pressed about whether a mainstream computer user in search of immediate safety from security woes ought to buy Apple Computer Inc.'s Macintosh instead of a Wintel PC, he said, "If you want to fix it tomorrow, maybe you should buy something else"."

Whaaa? Did Otellini recommend folks buy Macs? I know him from my past Intel career, and have also seen him in action plenty of times since joining EDN. Trust me, he doesn't get flustered and blurt out things he later regrets; he's very smart, very skillful, and in public forums he says exactly what he intends to say. Otellini could have been referring to the i945 core logic chipset his company just rolled out, which reportedly contains hardware security hooks. Or to PCs running Linux. But c'mon....he was talking about Macs. And it's unlikely he would have said what he did, tweaking the nose of long-time partner Microsoft in the process, unless there was something for Intel in it.

Ironically, in one interpretation of the last two weeks' worth of press coverage, there's no new news here. Apple already uses an Intel XScale ARM-based processor (like those employed in Pocket PCs, Pocket PC Phones, Smartphones, the PalmOne Treo 600 and 650, and other PDAs) in its Xserve RAID storage appliance. And I'm sure Apple and Intel have had on-and-off periodic chats for years. Heck, I even pitched Apple on flash memory back in the Newton days.

What else could be going on? Well....
1) Apple could be considering using XScale CPUs in a next-generation video playback-capable iPod. This is a concept that I (and others) am very skeptical of, no matter that Apple's now selling music videos via the iTunes Music Store. Why will be the subject of a blog post all it's own, soon to appear.
2) Apple could be resurrecting the Newton, again in an XScale-fueled form. Again, I'm doubtful. The only PDA variant currently not experiencing an evaporating market is the phone-inclusive products, and I don't think Apple wants to compete against partner Motorola's iTunes-cogniscent cell phone, especially since it's not even released yet!
3) Apple could be bringing out a tablet form factor computer, powered by either XScale or the Pentium M. Once again, doubtful. Tablet PCs haven't exactly set the world on fire, in spite of innumerable experiments over the past decade-plus by Microsoft and its partners (quick aside; I personally worked on Intel's hardware reference designs for Microsoft's WinPad O/S in the early 1990s).
4) Apple could be evaluating Intel flash memory for use in future iPods. You guessed it....doubtful. Current Intel NOR flash memory chips are inappropriate for write-frequently applications. Their large erase block sizes and nearly-a-second block erase times hamper them compared to AND and NAND counterparts, which are also often cheaper on a cost-per-bit basis even if you benchmark a two-bit-per-cell NOR chip against a one-bit-per-cell NAND competitor. And nothing I've gotten from Intel either on or off the record, barring an acquisition of some other company's chips, patents and technology, suggests that they've got a NAND killer coming out any time soon.
5) Apple wants to use Intel's WiMAX chips. Of the five scenarios I've just listed, this one is the most likely.

Continued with 'Apple on Intel, Part II'....