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LED lighting— yet more green BS

March 12, 2008

I haven’t done any green-baiting lately and I really miss reading the hundreds of comments from people that call me an idiot or a shill for the oil companies. Last week I was with my buddy Paul Tuttle at his monthly HP alumni gathering. One of the HP retirees bragged about how he was using LED bulbs in his house and how they lasted longer and saved energy. Now I try to keep up on LED lighting— it is a promising technology, but in 2008, the situation is this: Cree, a great outfit has managed to exceed the luminous efficiency of cold-cathode fluorescent but only in a tiny 20 mA LED. It puts out way less light than a CCF. OK, what Cree has done in their big lamps is to match the efficiency of halogen, at least in the lab. They are still a ways off from getting the same luminous efficiency as a fluorescent bulb. Now there are great applications for LED lighting. One is inside food coolers it the grocery store. Since fluorescents don’t work very well when it is cold they cannot be used. And the incandescent halogen lights might use the same power, but they also reject more heat into the cooler, and it takes refrigeration energy to make up for that. On top of that you don’t have to replace the LED lights as often and that is always good in a business situation.

Another great application for LED lights might be way up on a high ceiling where it is a real pain to get up there to replace the lamp. But be careful about lifetime claims for LEDs. First off, bear in mind that heat degrades an LED. The end-of-life may not be a failure, but rather, a reduction to 50% output. Also lets not forget you need a power supply to feed the LEDs. If you want any kind of efficiency, that has to be a switching supply with an IC and worse yet, electrolytic capacitors. You are not going to get 60,000 hours out of that in all cases. We all know that the early CFL lamps would die early if you switched them on and off a lot. That was not the phosphor or the bulb failing, it was the little power supply in the base. In addition to the lifetime issues of a power supply realize that the power supply is a big hit on efficiency. Yeah, you may run an LED string on AC with a resistor, but you will get really lousy efficiency. The same goes for making it dimmable, it will work but you will take an efficiency hit.

What really irks me is the plain old marketing BS surrounding LED lamps. Paul Tuttle told me about this great site, C Crane. We all gotta love a site that has short-wave radios and scanners on the home page. The problem is on the LED light page. There they have a little chart to show what a great deal LED lights are and how one bulb can save you 353 dollars and 25 cents. But it is a bald-faced lie and all it takes is a few minutes on the Internet to prove it. It took a few seconds to find this page with a halogen lamp that makes 840 lumens, uses 60 watts and lasts 3000 hours. When you plug this into the little chart at the bottom of the C Crane page you no longer get a $353.25 savings, you get a $217.50 penalty.

Incandescent 60 Watt Light Bulb CC Vivid 2 Watt LED Light Bulb Real incandescent bulb Real LED system CFL
Life Span (hours) 1,000 Up to 60,000 hours 3,000 Unlikely 60,000 hours 8000
Lumens ? 30 840 840 825
Number of bulbs used over 60,000 hour period 60 1 20 14 7.5
Bulb Cost per 60,000 hours $40.20 (67¢ each) $34.95 $79.80 (3.99 each) $489.30 $18.75 (2.50 each)
kWh of electricity used over 60,000 hours 3600 kWh 120 kWh 3600 kWh 1680 kWh 780 kWh
60,000 hours at 10¢ per kWh $360 $12 $360 $168 $78
Total cost after 60,000 hours $400.20 $46.95 $439.90 $657.30 $96.75
Money saved (or lost) by installing one CC Vivid LED Light Bulb Save $353.25 Per Bulb! (lie) Lose $217.50 per installation! Save $343.15 per installation

 The first issue is that the halogen puts out 840 lumens and the LED puts out 30. So you need 14 LED lamps to get the same light as a 60-watt halogen. (You can save a lot of electricity using candles too.) I added the three right-hand columns to show the real deal. I used the $3.99 cost from the Lamps Plus website for the 60 watt incandescent cost instead of $0.67 that the chart shows. That is only fair to the LED light.  I also got the numbers for a compact fluorescent bulb (CFL) from this website. Note that the CFL also rejects less heat into the room so if you use air conditioning you save with CFLs, just like you would save with an LED system.

But there is even worse news. I pointed out that LED bulbs degrade over time. Manufacturers want to run them hot since that lowers the forward voltage and increases efficiency, but the heat also kills the LED. So if my suspicions are correct and 60,000 hours life is to half-brightness, that means you have to multiply LED lamp costs by 1.5 to get the real cost penalty, at least if you want the same amount of lumen-hours from both systems.

And let us not forget the time value of money. The LED system makes you spend $489.30 right at the beginning. If you put that in the stock market at 6% return (or paid off your 6%, 30-year fixed mortgage), you could make $29.36 a year. That would pretty much buy all the incandescent lamps. If you use the lamp 8 hours a day that is 21 years of opportunity cost, nominally $616.56 but remember that the opportunity cost is also compounding , so if you use a compound interest calculation, the $489.30 up-front costs you a total of $1663.41 cents over the 21 years you could have had it in your equity account. Compound it 12 times a year and you get $1719.58. That will buy a lot of incandescent light bulbs and the electricity to feed them. Sure you will be drawing down your savings with the cost of the incandescent replacement bulbs and greater electricity, so you really don’t save 1700 bucks, — but you still lose with LED lamps when they are this expensive.

And you have to remember that the 60,000 hours is just a guess. None of these LED lamps have been run for 7 years straight to verify the lifetime. And I assure you the power supplies may well die before the LED. This is just as true for fluorescent lamps. I thought I was saving money with an electronic ballast 8-foot fixture in the megaplex. But it failed after 5 years and the cost to install a new ballast was far greater than the savings in electricity. Complexity and electronics can save power in the short run but if it costs you more money over time it is not being green, it is being wasteful. And look at this website. It has incandescent lamps that last 20,000 hours. Now the way I know how you do that is to oversize the filament, so I have to believe these bulbs are less efficient. But how about those 5,000 hour bulbs the website also mentions? I wish they had lumens output so we could do that comparison but that is a task for later. If you use 5,000 hour bulbs you only need 12 of them over those 21 years and they are just as bright when the are old as when they are brand new.

The final caveat about the LED lighting chart above is the claim that they can get 30 lumens for a 2-watt bulb. That is about twice as good luminous efficiency as the halogen. I doubt that is really what is going on. Perhaps I will buy one and measure its output. That is not easy since you have to integrate the output over the entire sphere of operation. Having a spot-light source may help in certain application but to be fair to fluorescents and incandescents we really have to look at the total lumens output from all three lamp systems.

Now I do want all you crazy greens to comment and call me a fool and work yourself into a self-righteous religious furor, but you should know I really do respect and love you all. I think most every one of you are good decent people who are wise enough to know that we have to use technology to save energy as much as we can. This is why I get so pissed off when people lie and you nice folks actually believe them. Marketing is based on that great principle—“just lie”. It worked for Hitler, it worked for all the con artists, it works for the used car salesman with his plaid jacket, firm handshake and big smile as he says “Damn glad to meet you!” You bet he is. He is about to rip you off.

But saving the planet is too important to let the confused or the con artists have their way. Greens need to understand a few basic principles of economics. One is that if something is cheaper in total time-adjusted cost, it is better. This means that you have to put a time-value on money. That is real, that is a law, not some half-baked theory or fever-dream hypothesis. If you can save money popping in incandescents for 21 years then they are better for the planet. (Actually you can see CFLs are currently the best by far.) That is why I believe in conservation, not conspicuous green consumption. Bob Pease saves a lot more of the planet driving a 1969 Volkswagen Beetle than a brand new $60,000 hybrid. Taxing the populace to pay some of us to put up solar panels the way Germany does is not good for the planet. It is wasteful and evil.

Here is a great site about LEDs and incandescent lights. And here is part one and part two of a nice interview with Silicon Valley legend TJ Rogers of Cypress Semi and Sunpower. He pretty much admits that you need subsidies to justify solar power. He seems to think that we are just about to turn the corner on economic viability. We shall see, my buddy Frank Fowler just put 30 grand worth of panels on his home and I will let you know if that drives his electricity bill to zero. Oh, and we all know wind power does not really kill birds, other than when it does kill a lot of birds.

Solar power is a great technology and I know of some start-ups that are going to make it economical. When that happens I will be solar’s biggest booster. If LED lights can really compete with CFLs I will be all for them. Right now, you are better off just turning off the light if you don’t need it and try to minimize your driving. That is conservation, and that has always been a good thing.
[Update] The Cree marketing manager wrote me a detailed refutation of this post I will put up later, but he was also bothered by my description of marketing– for that I apologize, I was not referring to the marketing departments of 1st tier companies like Cree and my pals at all the analog companies, it was these web marketers like C Crane that ticked me off.

Posted by Paul Rako on March 12, 2008 | Comments (26)

April 16, 2010
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
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December 17, 2009
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Peter commented:

I've bought 100, 100watt incandescents for $40. I reckon they will see me out and I can ignore the hype.


December 7, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Alex Bell commented:

It should be mentioned, that the biggest stumbling block on the way of green technology proliferation is the problem with efficient-durable electric energy storage on a mass production level. Lighting devices COTS-available are, in general, relatively good.What was overlooked for decades is the importance of technological transition from electro-chemical rechargeable batteries to the capacitive power sources. Capacitors (in particular, its subset ? Ultracapacitors) have tremendous technical advantages over the batteries. To read more on this topic just refer to ?Green Electricity Initiative (GEL Initiative), which is topping Google list for many years: www.alexanderbell.us/Initiative/GEL.htm. Kind Regards, Dr. Alexander Bell Infosoft International Inc, NY


October 29, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Brite-One commented:

I'm in the business of LED lighting and I agree that many claims are bogus. Yet LED's are the future of lighting and they have many excellent applications. Much of the problem is that folks don't understand the product. First and foremost is beam pattern. LED's by their very nature have a very narrow beam pattern. That's why they are excellent for traffic lights but poor for a replacement of your standard 60W light bulb in your table lamp. Secondly, LED Don't like heat! People putting these into an application that doesn't allow for the dissipation of heat will find they are burning out. Thirdly, CREE LED's are not the only quality LED in the market or will they continue on top of the food-chain. I look to Nichia to be a tough competitor. Forth: Unfortunately the "Big Box" stores are the reason that many people shy away from or are disappointed by their LED purchase. Discount stores always are looking for price rather than value. As we all become informed about the proper application of LED lamps we will find them to be the light source of greatest value.


May 3, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
mikeg commented:

you guys all need to go to a lighting store and actually see LED''s in action. They are terrible. After months of research and an attempt to put an LED system ( to be run by solar power for my manhattan apartment) someone finally had the guts to level with me today. This guy at lighting store showed me all kinds of led lights. They are amazingly weak and could never be used for flood lights or serious reading light. But lets say you are an idiot and you are willing to pay 130 dollars for bulb you still won''t get the brightness and the light quality you need for serious functional lighting. You have to look at lumens and you need to pay particular attention to how much light reaches it target the further away you get from the bulb. The difference between LED''s and incandescent or even CFL for that matter is like the difference between whole milk and skin. I''m so tired of people touting and evangelizing technology w/o actually trying it.. or exaggerating it''s performance. Let''s get real here. Just about every LED distributor if not all say something like "a 50 watt equivalent" when the bulb''s lumens are more like equivalent to 10 or 20 watts if even that! Why is that? I am appalled by the scale of industry wide dishonesty. It''s just nuts and doesn''t make business sense.


April 27, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Jay commented:

When do we get to see Cree''s response?


March 19, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Achim commented:

Any further discussion could be reduced to the question: what kind of light source should I use for the living room? All other applications could be done with this light source to be seen at acriche.com


March 19, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Mike Green commented:

Whatever the technical miscues presented in the artical, Paul makes the additional mistake of equating lowest monetary cost with environmental "goodness." Simple economics might be useful if all environmental (and health, and social, etc.) costs were included in the calculations. They never are!


March 17, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Steve-san commented:

You hit a nerve with that C Crane VIVID-II light example. That product and its advertising is giving LEDs, which have a great future, a bad name. They claim it replaces an incandescent light bulb, but you look at the specs and it puts out something like 54 Lumens. That isn't even 10% of a 60W incandescent's output. Misinformation and making outrageous claims to peddle yesterday's technology at inflated prices is hurting the public's peception of solid state lighting in my opinion.


March 14, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
steh commented:

Paul, You would have disparaged the Wright brothers. at Kitty hawk.


March 14, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Achim commented:

When comparing benefits and disadvantages of incandescent, CFL?s and LED?s, I?m sure CFL?s would be the looser. A flood of CFL?s is available which even don?t keep their promises. But LED?s definitely surrpassed all others. Don?t try to match ?Surplus LED?s or similar? with CFL?s. There are a lot of small companies that want to take you for a ride with their ?60-LED-Lamps?. Those parts are even unable to withstand a simple EMC-Test. I don?t want to offend no one?s sensibilities but let me say: relating to efficiency and ease of use, Cree and some others are already surpassed by a foreign company which could have a bright future. This company already HAVE a 900 lm Single-Chip LED at production which consumes only 10 Watts (!) and is directly connectable to mains voltage(!). Regarding the light quality, this component is still not very convenient for lighting the living room, but for almost all other purposes, even at very low temperatures. I have installed them at the stairway with success and they are working fine despite very frequent switching.


March 13, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Craig commented:

Dude, you're not allowed to use logic or common sense when 'green' matters are concerned. It has become a religious belief to some.


March 13, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Jonathan Williams commented:

Martin: How many white LED's do you install in traffic lights? Or do you prefer to read by red, green or yellow LED light? :o)


March 13, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Jonathan Williams commented:

Check out the posts on the solar panel blog. www.edn.com/blog/1470000147 We see similar issues where folks are claiming ''energy'' payback on new photovoltaic cells in one to three years, but you can''t buy them at a price that makes it worthwhile. Paul is absolutely right. It ain''t green if it doesn''t make cents. Thank you for a breath of sanity in this rose colored glasses world of green.


March 13, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Martin Bauer commented:

The level of mis-information in Paul Rako's rant is astounding, especially for such a high-quality magazine as EDN. I am working on LED replacement traffic signals. Payoff in this application is 2 years, partly in energy savings and largely in maintenance savings. And, they are brighter than the lights they replace.


March 12, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Tom Griffiths commented:

Your concerns are valid, although I believe your data sources are a bit dated relative to the luminous efficiency. There''s a good write up on the latest DOE testing results that highlights the fact that while there is plenty of over-statement and misrepresentation going on, there is also tremendous progress, including validated wall-plug efficiencies of 62 lumens/watt. www.solidstatelightingdesign.com/documents/view/sectornews.php?id=9748&sector=leddev#top The solid state lighting industry is making moves to get the claims under control, and there is an article 3 above that one which covers a forming industry association that plans to tackle the labeling and suitability for use marks (including vehicles to enforce those marks). As far as lifetime claims, one does have to be careful if a product isn''t sourcing LEDs from a recognized supplier. Lifetime calcs aren''t rocket-science... these are semiconductors of a general type that have been around for decades. We don''t freak out at Intel''s claimed MTBF for their latest Pentium, even when it incorporates the next steps in material and process technologies. Same here. Reputable manufs can show you lifetime versus drive current and temp curves for everything they''ve got. Best of all, and I''m admittedly biased, LED-based lighting technology continues to increase in efficiency on a steep curve. None of the existing light sources are making leaps in their efficiency. There are a few reasonably priced examples now which are cost-effective compared to CFL in 24x7 applications where quality of light makes a difference (24 hour restaurants, for instance). BTW, regular incandescents operate at about 10 lm/watt. Halogens are about 24, with CFL around 40-60. Wikipedia has a good summary of luminous efficacies www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luminous_efficacy


March 12, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Dave H commented:

Lots of old data and misrepresentations. But it points out a key fact in this industry, it is still a bit like the wild west out there, and there are lots of shyster vendors selling 'leds on a stick' and already issues with counterfeit components. Buy only from reputable dealers and companies like CREE, Philips, Osram/Sylvania, Lamina Lighting, and others. Delivered efficiencies of 55 lm/w (like the cree part mentioned above and include power supply) are substantially better than halogen at 15 lm/w and comparable to CFLs though not as good as T6 fluorescents at 100 lm/w. CCFLs are not a real light source except for LCD displays, and LEDs are replacing them in high end laptops (like the Apple) due to better color performance and lower battery drain. They also require a high voltage to operate. Furthermore, since an LED is a point source, its light can be easily directed and focused, while a CFL cannot (have you tried a CFL 'spot' light or even floodlight?) Additionally, the US DOE is working aggressively to provide labeling (Energy Star) and testing programs to verify performance. One final point, the accepted standard in the LED industry is 70% end of life. BTW, this is comparable to an incandescent EOL because the tungsten filament gets deposited on the inside of the bulb over time. So called 'long life' bulbs indeed have oversized filaments, the ratio of lifetime to drive current is in the 12th power so the bulbs are being underdriven and are therefore substantially less efficient. In the end, today LED lamps are technically equivalent to CFLs and substantially better suited to some applications like downlight or under cabinet light where light control is important. CFLs also have mercury which is released into the environment unless disposed of correctly. Lab demonstrations of High Brightness LED lamps in the ~100 lm/w range have already been made and chip products are on the market in the 75 lm/w. Your point about power supplies is critical, as efficiency and lifetime can be limited by these units. If we really wanted to be green, we would run our whole houses on DC current...but that's another story.


March 12, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
James commented:

I actually bought an LED "bulb" from C Crance about 3 years ago. I can't remember the lumens or watt ratings. It was $45. It lasted 3 months. A friend tore it open to see if it was fixable (like maybe just a bad capacitor). The whole thing was toast. I'm anxious for LEDs to get to a point where they are worth it. In the meantime, my whole house is CFL. The warm up time isn't THAT annoying, and the color spectrum actually seems quite good.


March 12, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
PaulR commented:

Richard is absolutely correct. In fact, I switch to incandescents in several fixtures during winter months.


March 12, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
PaulR commented:

Some CFL''s are stated to be acceptable for use in enclosed fixtures, and many are not. I haven''t done any direct comparisons, but CFL quality, reliability, etc., seem to vary widely, even if the ratings are similar. My guess is that one only needs to look at the source of most, to figure out why. I have also found that in many instances, inexpensive (eg., about $20) 4-ft. fluorescent fixtures'' ballasts have shorter lifetimes than the bulbs that fit them! My guess is that the electronic ballasts are either easily killed by "junk" on the AC line, or are simply such poor quality that they fail sooner than a cheapo kids radio. This is not very good savings, and can''t possibly be "green". Meanwhile, there are several fluorescent fixtures in my house that must be 40 years old. They work just fine, and not one has failed in the 10 years I''ve lived there.


March 12, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Richard Babyak commented:

One thing that gets overlooked in calculating the energy savings of a non-incandescant light source is whether or not the home is in a heating mode or not. The "waste heat" from a light bulb is not actually wasted if the home is in a heating mode, since whatever BTUs added to the space by the bulb reduce the heating load on the heating appliance by an equivalent amount. If you live in a cold climate, there is no wasted heat, and thus nothing to be gained by changing from a low-cost ordinary light bulb to an expensive alternative light source.


March 12, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Ron Bauerle commented:

I gave up on CFLs - the 75-W equivalents didn''t last long in my enclosed fixture, and the 200-W equivalent in my open fixture flickered, wasn''t anywhere near the spec''d lumens, and finally died after a few months. Banning incandescents would be the equivalent of RoHS - tree huggers winning out over sound science and economics.


March 12, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Meredith Poor commented:

Anyone making up a matrix of LED products finds spectrum from infrared to ultraviolet, with lasers in nearly all parts of it, and high power/high brightness in everything except the fringes. Product development is occurring at a frenetic pace, something the lighting industry in general doesn't match. This changes all the rules, and no one quite knows where that's going to go.


March 12, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Pierre commented:

In my daily work (not rocket science, just automotive lighting R&D), I use 180lm tiny LEDs only requiring a 2.5W power supply. 30lm for 2W corresponds to a very old LED generation (dating back 2002/2003 maybe).


March 12, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
ltg11 commented:

Check out Cree LED Lighting Solutions at www.creelighting.com. This is a new company that is shipping high volumes of LED downlights that change all of the rules. It provides the look and color of incandescent (no joke here) better efficiency than CFL, is dimmable, and lasts lasts 50,000 hours.


March 12, 2008
In response to: LED lighting— yet more green BS
Ettiene commented:

While you make a number of good points in your article, you neglect to point out that in your example using the LEDs still saves almost 2000 kWh vs. incandescent. That means reduced carbon, etc. in the environment. Your comeback might be fluorescent is more efficient and that is correct, but CFL and CCF will not focus light like LEDs. For instance try lighting art with a CFL or CCF. Also CFLs and CCF cannot fit in many of the package sizes required to retrofit existing bulb formats, such as MR16. LED is not the end all ? be all but it is well on its way and there are already applications where it is the superior solution. Also, it may be worth it for some consumers and businesses to pay a premium to be more environmentally friendly. Just because the US doesn?t have a carbon credit program like most of the rest of the world doesn?t mean we shouldn?t care about our carbon footprint.

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