Google's Chrome O/S: Why Is Anyone Surprised?

A month-plus back, when I forecasted the future of x86 CPUs and their associated chipsets in the netbook form factor, I promised you follow-up prose that discussed both the likely fortunes of non-x86 processors and non-Windows operating systems in this particular product space. Google gave me a perfect opportunity to put my overdue aspirations into practice late last night, when the company announced its upcoming Chrome operating system plans; an open-source beta code release later this year, followed by hopeful bundling with systems beginning in the middle of next year.

Cyberspace is atwitter (both figuratively and literally) with seeming surprise at the news. To which I can’t help but respond…duh? This is, after all, the culmination of the browser-based (with corresponding neuter of the underlying operating system) computing and communications vision that prompted Microsoft to vigorously attack Netscape beginning in the mid-1990s (PDF). And it’s a vision shared by Eric Schmidt, now-CEO at Google and then-CTO at Sun Microsystems.

Look at the evolutionary chronology that got us to this point:

• On April 1 (irony is apt), 2004, Google expanded beyond search in launching Gmail
• 2.5 years later, the company further evolved its Apps suite with Docs and Spreadsheets
• Six-plus months after that, Google Gears began to bring offline functionality to Google’s various services
• September, 2008 revealed the company’s own browser (and not coincidentally, nexus for Google services access), Chrome
• Just yesterday morning, a number of Google’s services shed their ‘Beta’ monikers
• And then there are those longstanding rumors of GDrive, a cloud-based storage repository…

What is the Google O/S? Here’s a quote from the blog post used to announce it:

The software architecture is simple — Google Chrome [editor note: the browser] running within a new windowing system on top of a Linux kernel.

Your first thought might be "doesn’t this conflict with Android, Google’s O/S for handhelds?" And ironically, after spending around a week with a carrier-unlocked iPhone 3G, last night I received my next toy to try out, an Android-fueled T-Mobile G1. But keep in mind that Android’s quite a different beast (for understandable reasons), than what Google’s planning for the Chrome O/S, no matter that the core cloud-centric vision is identical in both cases.

Like the upcoming Chrome O/S, Android is based on the Linux kernel. However, ‘Linux kernel’ and ‘full-blown Linux’ are entirely two different things; Android’s handset origins mean that its primary focuses are on power consumption and minimal memory consumption, at the tradeoff of lower performance. Also, at least at the present time, Android is an ARM-centric operating system. It certainly could be re-compiled and otherwise re-architected to run on other processor architectures, something that MIPS reminded me of just a bit over a month ago. And Android’s Dalvik virtual machine enables third-party developers to write hardware-independent code, albeit at a further performance and functional impact…indicative of the fact that Google recently unveiled a less portable but speedier and more robust Native Development Kit option.

The Chrome O/S, on the other hand, is likely to incorporate a fuller-featured Linux distro, representative of the beefier hardware (CPU, DRAM, HDD or SSD, etc) it’s targeting. As such, it’ll enable both developers and end users to better leverage the diverse Linux code ecosystem as compared to with Android. And to wit, it’ll support not only ARM but also x86 out of the chute; I expect that the bulk of Chrome O/S-fueled hardware designs will therefore harness Atom or some other Intel architecture processor (i.e. AMD, Via, or maybe even Nvidia).

What’s the advantage of the Chrome O/S over any other Linux candidate, such as Ubuntu? Development and support costs, for one thing; Google will be bankrolling a large chunk of the budget that an OEM would otherwise need to shoulder. A standardized API and application suite, for another; ask any Linux developer what he or she thinks about supporting the diversity of today’s Linux distros, and brace yourself for a highly ‘emotional’ reaction. As such, beyond Windows 7, the Chrome O/S’s largest competitor is likely to be Intel and Novell’s Moblin.

Still, I expect the Chrome O/S to run up against the same sort of user pushback that initial Linux-based netbooks experienced; user interface unfamiliarity, and application-and-file format incompatiblities, versus the Windows heritage that most consumers will be coming from. This resistance, as I most recently discussed in in-depth form back in late January, derives from form factor and pricing that are both too reminiscent of full-featured notebooks, thereby creating unrealistic expectations in consumers minds.

As such, I suspect that Google will leverage its existing Android relationships with handset manufacturers and cellular carriers in order to develop highly subsidized ’smartbooks’, one example of which appeared just the other day in the form of Sprint’s 99 cent (with two-year contract) offering. When your new subsidized cell phone has a price tag at or near $0, you don’t much mind learning a new user interface and application suite in order to use it, right? The same logic will apply to ‘at or near $0′ smartbooks, whose subsidized price tags will so undercut those of Windows-powered netbooks and notebooks that consumers won’t revolt at the requisite functional disparity.

And on that note, I’ll close with this thought; why did Google roll out the Chrome O/S now, and with such seeming lack of advance preparation, exemplified by the low-key and detail-deficient unveiling? Consider that Microsoft’s WorldWide Partner Conference kicks off next Monday. The company is expected to announce that Windows 7 has reached the RTM (release to manufacturing) mark. But consider, too, that Microsoft’s Ray Ozzie has been dropping subtle and not-so-subtle hints about putting Windows and Office ‘in the cloud’ ever since he joined the company as its CTO, and consider Ozzie’s Lotus Notes background…