Movie Industry Woes: Causes and Conditions

A few weeks back, my wife and I finally got around to watching the classic film Singin' In The Rain on DVD (hold that thought). For those of you who haven't seen it, the historical underpinning to the film's plot was the mid-1920s beginning-of-transition from silent movies to 'talkies', and its impact on actors and directors alike. Watching Singin' In The Rain reminded me of a subsequent course correction that the film industry also successfully navigated, a transformation motivated by the perceived competitive threat of the color televisions that were beginning to appear in folks' homes. In response, the movie industry migrated to widescreen films to give audiences an added reason to seek their entertainment in theaters instead of cocooning in their homes.

Fast-forward to the modern era, and it's turning out to be another disappointing year for the movie industry. Predictably, the MPAA (with the assistance of our fearless leaders) is pointing the blame finger at file sharing, and at copyright-infringing mass DVD duplication. There's probably at least a shred of truth to the MPAA's claims; high-profile movies such as Star Wars: Episode III and Final Fantasy VII: Advent Children have been posted to the Internet, after all, and other blockbusters are undergoing unprecedented security to minimize the probability of a leak (although, remember, it only takes one breach….). But I personally think their FUD campaign is vastly overblown; even with a broadband connection it'll take hours or days to download a movie, well beyond the patience of the instant gratification-seekers that dominate today's society. The average computer user doesn't have the expertise to use (or patience to learn) BitTorrent or another P2P program. And I don't think the MPAA is doing anything to help its public image when it sues 67-year old grandfathers who don't even like to watch movies, either.

It's encouraging to read that Hollywood executives are beginning to publicly admit that bad movies are in part to blame for the film industry's woes. Assuming that a reprioritization of good writing, acting and directing will revive the genre, I don't fear for the future of the film industry per se; studios are already exploring other distribution channels such as faster-to-market and direct-to-market DVDs, along with online download services. But I do strongly believe that unless the movie theaters revamp themselves, they'll largely be extinct within a decade. Why? Large-screen TVs, surround sound and high-quality DVD media combine to create a highly immersive entertaiment experience at home. With this as the baseline, why spend time and money hiring a babysitter, driving to a theater and buying costly tickets, only to endure cramped quarters, overpriced food, ringing cell phones, chatty seatmates, lo-fi sound, and out-of-focus projections onto dinky, dirty, damaged screens?

To remain relevant, movie theaters are going to have to significantly upgrade the audience experience (led by IMAX, who has already 'figured it out'), to a much greater degree than the standard-to-widescreen revamp of decades' past. A film-to-digital projection transition, alone, won't do the trick. Sure, audiences might not see the effects of damaged film stock anymore, but after years' worth of staring at dust specks and tears I think that viewers largely ignore the degradation, anyway. And, depending on where an audience member is sitting, and on what the characteristics of the projector, screen and theater lighting are, a moviegoer might experience a notably degraded experience in the digital era. Digital projection has obvious benefits for studios; the ability to rapidly and cheaply distribute movies to theaters, for example, and to track how often the movies are shown (I'm glad to see, as I'm sure the theaters also are, that the final Digital Cinema Initiatives system specifications published in late July expunged this overly invasive 'feature'). But for the theaters themselves, a digital projection conversion is fundamentally nothing more than a significant expense, with little to no upside potential, which is why after years' worth of hype the transition has only begun to happen (and only with significant Hollywood financial backing, to boot).

Continued with 'Three Tech Keys To Continued Theater Relevance'….