2012: The Year Of Looming Solar Disaster, When Civilization Devolves?

Was taotlly stuck until I read this, now back up and running.

You've hit the ball out the park! Incrdeilbe!

The comment at 7/20/2009 1:56:49 PM, drmotoman said: Check out this guy: Dr. Paul LaViolette and his "Galactic Superwave" theory...VERY thought-provoking... I did and I have to agree. This man's theory of the Galactic Superwave is so thought provoking I bought the book. It is well referenced, and it does go against the popular thought in high energy physics; nevertheless, smart people's theories have been wrong before. Dr. LaViolette theories do have proof and confirmation. A good challenge. Read it.

Try a 30 day to 90 day delivery. Not an uncommon item .

Does anyone know if any (scaled simulation) research has been done in this area? If MHV distribution lines are considered "antennas", then the laws of physics dictate that any voltage induced would be proportional to the inductance of the line(s) and the rate of change of the magnetic flux about these lines. As the rate of change (of the flux) approaches zero, so does the induced voltage. The Earth's magnetic field is, for most intents and purposes, constant. One comment above spoke of the grave consequences of a "sudden" shift in the Earth's magnetic field (pole shift). Since I am certainly no expert in the geomagnetic properties of Earth, I pose the following questions: 1)Is there any geological record that indicates a post-cooling shift of the Earth's magnetic poles? 2)What phenomena might give rise to such a shift? 3)Would life on Earth not be more endangered by said phenomena than from the corresponding pole shift? In order to determine what (if any) effect a pole shift might have on power distribution, we would need to know just how rapidly the shift occurred. In other words, are we speaking of change (and how much change?) over milliseconds, seconds, minutes, hours, .....? While most transformers in AC distribution systems will respond to frequencies considerably outside the 50Hz-60Hz band, I simply can't wrap my mind around the possibility that, baring some catastrophic event, a shift in the Earth's magnetic field might have significant frequency components in this range. I would opine that there would be a much greater (possibly catastrophic) effect on navigation and positioning systems that depend upon the stability of the Earth's magnetic field. Once again, the effect would be proportional to the magnitude of the shift and the speed with which it occurred. With respect to our sun's magnetic emissions, I must acknowledge that there is at least the potential for wider and more frequent variations. Any estimates as to their effect on our power distribution systems would require knowledge (or estimates) of the magnitude and rapidity of the variations. I would like to have seen more from the poster who raised the issue of "DC" currents being a result of emissions due to solar magnetic storms. I don't have a problem with the notion that DC currents could cause transformer core saturation. There may also be a problem with the use of the term, "DC". DC implies no variation with time. Perhaps the writer was referring to a "unipolar" pulse current. I guess I just have a problem with the use of the term, "DC" in this context. Just a few of my thoughts. I don't think this is anything that can be given fair treatment in a brief (poorly written) article or in any "op-ed" responses contained here. Emotion should be eliminated (or at least minimized) in favor of science.

I generally read EDN for more accurate information on technical electronics topics than I can find in the general media. It is disappointing that EDN would reprint parts of a grossly inaccurate article without doing even basic fact checking. It's something I expect from FOX News or CNN, not EDN - and greatly reduces my desire to read anything from such an organization.

Sounds like a bunch of whoowee or just like the guy standing on the street corner holding the sign that says "The end is near". Life goes on. Granted it may offer some difficultes in the future like dealing with the after affects of the current administration. Plan for it. And then deal with it.

I can't believe these comments that try to make this a political issue. Mealer: "global warming LIE is based on sunspots" -- what rubbish. Global warming is a simple equation of % of carbon dioxide in the atmoshpere. You can just do the math and see the results 10, 20, 30, 40 years etc. with different models of CO2 emmissions. Who said anything about sunspots?? Sheesh. Not buying a "self regenerating car" from you.

One of the things that happens during Solar activity is the flare or result of it couples a DC current into the earth and into HV transmission lines this DC current when flowing thru the winding of a transformer can saturate the iron core and cause it, the winding, to fail from short circuit currents beyond its capability

I recall discussion following the 1989 Quebec shutdown. The problem is in DC or low-frequency component induced current causing transformers to saturate. North American power distribution is wired different from UK and Europe, which it is thought will not suffer so badly. Tesla pioneered high-voltage distribution using AC, which made it possible to transmit power more than a few miles. With modern technology it is possible to use high-voltage DC with converters, but the important requirement is ISOLATION. The primary needs to be floating from ground, with a ground return wire. Or, series capacitors would block DC - I wouldn't like to suggest a specification for that capacitor! Y2K was a potential disaster which was avoided at a cost, since it was well-defined and recognised in time to take action. The next solar storm may be too close and, like climate change, too contentious for us to focus on action. For a more authoritative warning, see: www.newscientist.com/article/mg20127001.300-space-storm-alert-90-seconds-from-catastrophe.html?full=true

All I can say is to wait for us. Mealer Companies LLC Not because I am selling you anything, but hopefully we will be able to provide you something to thwart of carbon taxes and grid control. The entire global warming LIE is based on what these sunspots and reversed solar flares will do to Earth's climate and weather. Al Gore saw a great opportunity and is fooling the masses so much that he and his cronies are becoming uber wealthy while enslaving the planet's population... Many of the cowardous are agreeing with the scandal. JL Mealer Mealer Companies LLC mealercompanies.com America's Next Major Automaker & 100% Self-Regenerative-Fueled High Capacity Electricity Producing Device MFG

We have to somehow connect this with global warming?. Come on folks lets create another canard. Its Y2K all over again. :-)

Jeez... the latest crisis du jour. Follow the money and you'll find an Al Gore-like flim-flam artist lurking, waiting to clean up on the hysteria (haw, haw, we really pulled a fast one on the Nobel morons, huh, Tipper?). First the world is gonna freeze solid, then we're due to burn up from global warming (since redubbed "climate change"); before it was the man-hater Ehrlich's mass starvation doom; more lately the pig flu non-pandemic.

I see a huge opportunity for my Solar Power business. I can use this propaganda to my advantage - after all the Mayans were an amazing civilization and so intelligent they disappeared.

maybe Edisons DC system was a good idea after all, no transformers to burn out.

It's not a 500,000 KVolt lines niether it's 500 KV or 500,000 Volts. Curently in use is a 230 KiloVolts & 400 KiloVolt lines.

this is cool.... caws my aim name has been solardisaster for like 7 years now. lawl.

Lol, do you really believe in this ridiculous theory ? Hahahaha, I think that if it really happens at least we won't need to read any more arcticles from Mr. Dipert ! Complete waste of time !

" Imagine this: no ATMs, no gas stations, no cell phones, no Wii, no radio or TV, no Web (no need for EDN), no movies, ... " No need for EDN was the best part !!! I think that we are already doomed. The proof is that we like to read crappy post like this one.

Will we lose our memory when the nothern lights come ?

I'm worried about other things like the magnetic pole reversal, a core shift, glaciers melting, and catching the swine flu from eating pork rinds . But I have a plan. I'm making compasses with the north and south switched, starting a company to drive a big metal pole through the earth to keep the core in place (and the planet would look more like my globe), looking over topo maps for the right elevation to get beach front property when the water levels rise and I've decided to boil my pork rinds to kill the germs. In reality, I'm just worried about having a job each week (stupid economy). Much more important things to worry about than this.

If indeed it all comes crashing down in 2012, the only reasonable course is to take out a 30-year interest-only mortgage on a really big house. I admit that 500000-kV lines seem pretty wild, but they're working on it: From one of the articles: "... an existing 230,000-kilovolt line on towers that could be upgraded to carry a 500,000-kilovolt line ..." As for solar flares and disruptions, google for "carrington event". That was in 1859, and it caused a lot of damage to the primitive communications wew had ayt the time. Today it would be catastrophic - but they figure it was a once in 500 years event (too close for comfort). There were smaller storms on 1921 and 1960. One solution: small, distributed power reactors (pebble bed reactors seem a good choice) - maybe 1 or 2 per big city. That way, one failure won't take out a whole coast - as happened before. "...whether modern society is at risk of collapse by being over dependent on technology. " Imagine this: no ATMs, no gas stations, no cell phones, no Wii, no radio or TV, no Web (no need for EDN), no movies, ... There's also some info on the 1989 event.

So, does this mean that those of us who have (or are planning to have) enough solar panels on our roofs to turn the electric meter backward (actually feed a little INTO the grid) are going to be in the catbird's seat? Or will "the calamity" blow them out and cause utter chaos? Not being a subscriber to the "global warming" theory, I would guess attempting to be energy-independent (but not necessarily survivalist) would be the prudent approach.

More Y2K-style gibberish, aimed at creating panic and FUD. Better would be a little introspection about what it would take to build a resilient power generation and transmission setup, kind of IP carrying gigawatts instead of terabits. Read Harold D. Foster PhD's "The Ozymandias Principles: Thirty-One Strategies for Surviving Change" at hdfoster dot com slash Foster_ozymandias dot pdf

Some years back a large solar flair took out Quebec. The northern lights that night went so far south that you could look south of straight up and see them.

Between having off-mode RFI bork transformers (switchgear, smart-griddy snubbers, normal ones...) and getting momentary Arizona sun in Cleveland, that's a lot of ailing power diodes. A lot of extra false capacitance touch and power-toggling events, too. So remember; tell your neighbors "don't eat me, I have spares!" Then see if their kid has a knack for knocking electromigrated things back into service.

Aren''t there fuses- at least on the secondary side? Wouldn''t some fuses and lightining suppression technology work to protect the primary?

Dear CheckingOut, what a ridiculous over-reaction. The referenced data's not absolutely perfect, so you're going to reject not only this particular topic (which is silly in and of itself) but also everything written by this and every other author at the publication? What a fine engineer you must be...not. Don't let the door hit you on the way out

Given the factual errors in this article and the writer's alarmist tone, the credibility of this piece is very suspect. In fact, that now goes for all content in EDN publications.

I absolutly agree with this article. Everyone thinks I am crazy for thinking this will become our future. It will happen, everyone who thinks I am crazy now, just wait. I will be right and everyone that I work with will regret laughing at me!- Sorry I got a little carried away. I do agree with this article, however

Wow, that article had a lot of errors! The problem with solar storms isn't "a little extra current slip(ping) the transformers over the edge", it is the induction of very low frequency currents on top of the 60Hz that causes the trouble. A few tens of amps of "DC" in the neutral leg can cause the cores to saturate on one half-cycle, and the released flux then heats the tank walls and other structures. Hydro Quebec had this happen on a large scale in 1989, during a solar storm.

This was a little late for April fools day. The sunspot activity is at a low now and has been for over a year.

Remember, the Mayan universe is set in a circular Timeline. The calendar ends in 2012 because the next age starts and we can reuse the old one.

All: The Wired information isn't fiction, although poorly written. The potential for damage to high-energy grid transformers, and the results, has already been discussed in the Federal government. Google "Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack: Critical National Infrastructures" and read Page 27. After reading, consider what other mechanisms could just as easily do the deed (using your imagination, I expect it should take you about 3 minutes to construct a pretty good scenario) and then wonder why on earth we don't already have spares plans well in place and advertized.

Dear ejr, Strictly speaking, we're ALWAYS somewhere within a given solar cycle. The first sunspot of the current cycle was observed on January 4, 2008, as noted in the link I provided in my writeup, although other sources suggest that the current cycle started in October of last year. It's reassuring to hear that the current cycle is (so far at least) quieter than average. Thanks to all who pointed this out

First, the next solar cycle has not yet begun

With the current solar activity being so low with no sign of changing there is no way we will be at a solar peak by 2012. See this link for an opposing viewpoint. tinyurl.com/6e639d . The sun could be spotless for a while which means nothing will happen in 2012. So far the "new" solar cycle has not started the normal increase in solar activity. We are still running with no spots on the sun. By the way the solar activity also affects global weather (i.e. global warming). This is also a good site from NASA: solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml

According to National Geographic, the sun is being more quiet than normal -- so much so that they're slightly concerned about a replay of the "Little Ice Age". news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/05/090504-sun-global-cooling.html

a one to three year lag time? I'm surprised the ultra-liberal pseudo-science rag, Wired, isn't knocking on the White House doors screaming...we could put some people to work building transformers NOW! Forget about stock piling. Don't worry, everyone, with the current administration's pledge of No more nuke plants, no more coal plants, no more CO2 and therefore no more living plants what are you worried about the grid for? Won't be any electricity to put on it anyway and there won't be any food to cook with it.

The guy writing for Wired can''t tell a 500kV transformer from a 500000kV (sic) transformer, and tries to convince me that the transformer and _not_ the line is an antenna.....sounds like junk science at best, written by one of those folks that did not pay attention in high-school physics.....does Wired not edit this techno-babble? /nvv