Apple's iPad 2: Pre-Event Predictions (And Post-Event Analysis) For You
As I type these words, Apple’s ‘Come see what 2011 will be the year of’ event is set to start in less than two hours, at San Francisco’s Yerba Buena Center for the Arts:
Alas, I didn’t receive an invitation; Apple PR long ago seemingly stopped trying to seduce me with attendance requests, presumably because they saw that the Reality Distortion Field wasn’t having its desired effect. As such, I’ll be monitoring (and reality-translating) the liveblogs generated by the ‘chosen few‘; Ars Technica, Engadget, etc. And here’s what I expect to see (and not see); check back post-event for my critique of my prognostications, along with a review of what was actually announced:
Perhaps obviously, from the above graphic, a next-generation tablet will receive front-and-center attention. Apple’s first-generation iPad has dramatically exceeded all previously tablet form factor devices’ popularity as measured by consumer embrace (i.e. sales), but it’s not a perfect product; thickness and weight were both regularly cited as excessive in reviews. I expect Apple to make positive moves in both areas, in part by migrating to a thinner LED-backlit LCD display, and in part by slimming down the form factor of the embedded battery (in conjunction with, perhaps, internal circuitry power consumption improvements that enable the battery to be less storage capacity-formidable than was previously necessary). And, taking a nod from the recent MacBook Air redesign, I suspect that the iPad 2 will be more angular than its predecessor, as well.
One other ‘knock’ on the first-generation iPad from developers and end users alike was its system memory deficit; at 256 MBytes, it’s the same amount as in the Apple A4 CPU-fueled latest-generation iPod touch, even though the iPad’s screen size is 28% larger from a pixel count standpoint (1024×768, versus the iPod touch’s 960×640 pixel ‘Retina Display‘). The A4-powered iPhone 4 migrated to 512 MBytes of SDRAM, and I suspect the iPad 2 will do the same, which (among other things) will improve the device’s multitasking capabilities.
Clues to the likely iPad-to-iPad 2 transition can also come from a perusal of already-concluded evolutions elsewhere in Apple’s product line. Judging from the fact that the iPhone 4 has both front- and rear-facing cameras (versus rear-only in the iPhone 3GS predecessor), as does the fourth-generation iPod touch, along with Apple’s heavy promotion of FaceTime video conferencing (and not to mention the fact that a single-camera configuration was seemingly originally planned for the third-generation iPod touch), I anticipate that the iPad 2 will embed at least one (front-facing) camera, and will probably go down an iPhone 4-mimicking two-camera path. The rear-located camera will be of limited practical utility, given the form factor differentiation between the iPad and a single-hand-holdable alternative device, but the front-based image sensor will give FaceTime a further popularity boost.
And although it may already be intuitively obvious given Verizon’s recent adoption of the iPhone 4, I suspect that the iPad 2 will come not only in a cost-optimized Wi-Fi-only version as before but also in both CDMA and GSM cellular data variants. After all, the first-generation iPad added GSM cellular capabilities via an optional add-in module, whose electrical interface and system real estate at least one enterprising hacker alternatively employed to embed a Verizon MiFi unit. However, I hope that this time Apple puts the GPS circuitry on the main board versus the cellular add-on, so that Wi-Fi-only users are also able to tap into geolocation-cognizant apps. And I’ll be curious to see if Apple also augments the existing accelerometer and silicon compass (aka magnetometer) with a gyroscope.
Next, we transition to the ‘maybe’ category. The Intrinsity-aided A4 CPU found in the first-generation iPad is getting somewhat long in the tooth at this point, at least when its feature set (single-core ARM Cortex-A8, PowerVR SGX 535 GPU) is compared in a relative standpoint with the dual-core Cortex-A9 (and Scorpion-approximation) SoCs now on the scene from competitors such as Nvidia (Tegra 2), Qualcomm (Snapdragon), and Texas Instruments (OMAP 4). Pragmatically, however, I’ve heard little complaining in an absolute sense about the A4’s performance (aside from a few particularly demanding games), no matter that I could rationalize a notable boost given AirPlay, from-iOS printing, and other functions that Apple’s now pushing. And it frankly makes little sense for Apple to ‘keep up with the Joneses’ purely for competitive-pace reasons, if the apps aren’t also demanding it. As such, while I suspect the A4’s CPU and GPU will get at least a minor clock speed uptick, I’m not sure if a more substantial processor evolution will take place this or next time, likely commensurate with a display pixel boost (more on that later).
And what of the Thunderbolt (formerly Light Peak) I/O interface that Apple and Intel unveiled last week for the former company’s MacBooks? Here again, I’m on the fence. Adding Thunderbolt (or even the lesser-function DisplayPort and/or SD card interfaces that have also been rumoured) to the iPad design would boost the bill-of-materials cost; SD card and VGA video capabilities are already possible via the existing Apple dock connector and adapters, although the ‘analog sunset‘ may mute Apple’s continuing enthusiasm for the latter feature. And I’m not even confident that the necessary PCI Express cognizance exists in the A4 (or successor) CPU to provide a clean connection to Intel’s Thunderbolt IC, anyway.
Sooner or later, I believe, Apple’s going to need to expand its iPad form factor downward into more economical and more easily totable dimensions, such as those exemplified by Dell’s Streak 7 and Samsung’s 7″ Galaxy Tab (not to mention the rumored upcoming 8.9″ variant of the latter). But is now the time? As the Magic 8-Ball might say, ‘Reply hazy.’ When (not if, IMHO) a bezel shrink happens, I’m particularly interested to see what Apple and its display partners do from a pixel resolution standpoint, as more options mean more headaches for developers.
Finally we move to the realm of what the Magic 8-Ball might classify as ‘don’t count on it’ candidates, both again focused on LCDs. As much as I respect the opinions of longstanding display guru Dr. Raymond Soneira, I’m not in sync with his prognostication that Apple will migrate from a 4:3 aspect ratio to the 3:2 widescreen orientation…at least in the ~10″ form factor. To do so would not only increase the unit’s cost, size and heft, it’d also lend credence to the design decisions made by competitors such as Motorola with the Xoom.
Similarly, in spite of abundant rumors of recent months, I highly doubt that Apple will migrate to a higher-resolution Retina Display in the 10″ form factor, at least until the costs of doing so substantially decrease. There’s just little justification at the present time for Apple to do such a thing, aside from the ability to more crisply view high-resolution still images. Not to mention the developer difficulties that’d be incurred by the resultant requirement to support both legacy and new pixel counts, akin to the problems that resulted from the iPhone 3GS-to-4 transition.
Apple’s briefing is about to begin. Let’s see how well I forecast, shall we?
Post-briefing followup: with apologies for any perceived lack of humility on my part, I spot-on nailed the iPad 2:
- 1 GHz dual-core “A5″ CPU
- Up to 9x faster graphics (as I tweeted yesterday, I suspect that the Apple A5 is is a dual-core Cortex-A9 akin to Samsung’s Exynos, albeit with an Imagination Technologies-supplied graphics core versus ARM’s Mali GPU used in Samsung’s SoC)
- 33% thinner (now 8.8 mm)
- Lighter (from 1.5 lbs to 1.3 lbs)
- Same 10 hour battery life estimate
- Both front (VGA-resolution video)- and rear (720p video)-facing cameras
- Three-axis gyroscope included. Unfortunately, GPS remains a cellular-only portion of the feature set.
- New $39 dock adapter supports 1080p HDMI, but no DisplayPort/Thunderbold connector (or DisplayPort adapter, for that matter) or integrated SD card slot. Apple has also added both standard-definition composite (interlaced) and component (progressive-scan) video adapters. And the 1080p-capable VGA adapter remains available, which is not terribly surprising even in the ‘analog sunset’ era because, as I’ve mentioned in past Xbox 360 writeups, VGA is considered to be a ‘computer’ versus ‘consumer electronics device’ video interface and therefore benefits from a HD loophole in CSS and other DRM schemes’ specifications.
- Both AT&T and Verizon 3G network options (wonder if this’ll be via a common Qualcomm-supplied cellular transceiver?), along with a Wi-Fi-only variant. No LTE yet, but no surprise there.
- Not to mention both black and white color scheme options
- Shipping on March 11 in the US, expanding to 26 other countries on March 25th
- Same pricing as first-generation iPad for Wi-Fi-only and cellular-inclusive versions in various resident flash memory storage capacity options
Kari commented:
Has anyone used the iPad to do something actually useful ? Playing around, surfing, time waisting is fine but really, do You actually need it for something ? When You create something meaningful, you grab your Macbook.
Oddit Tee commented:
Looking at iPad’s location in the feature-price space it doesn’t seem compelling. I can do so much more with an iPhone and MacBook than with an iPad, and since a cell phone is unavoidable… iPad seems to be not quite “it,” falling just short on functionality to replace my MacBook.
I cannot justify blowing North of 3-grand for the heavily redundant functionality that comes from owning all three (i.e. phone, iPad, laptop).
wrrlwind commented:
I have the 1st one and will be buying the 2nd generation tomorrow. If youve never owned one, you just dont get it.
VL commented:
iPad is not for engineers, it’s a toy.
Engineers typically don’t like locked devices with prescription as you cannot do this and you are not allowed to do that. It is a device for consumption only with the prescription from doctor S.J.
Steve from Oz commented:
My wife and I both have iPads and we are both iMac users. She is an artist and I am an electronics engineer/sf writer. Rather than state what it doesn’t do, let me tell you what we use ours for. Sketching using SketchBook Pro with a Griffin stylus, emails, blog posts, downloading and listening to music/music videos, watching Youtube, reading the news every day, web surfing, playing really cool games, looking at the night sky with StarWalk, using the superb scientific PCalc app, showing relatives our latest photos/videos when visiting, writing (using the sync feature for Scrivener on the iMac), using the Maps app and GPS for directions (cuts down the arguments in the car), Google Earth viewing, watching streaming movies/news/current affairs/comedy/science programs/movie reviews from the ABC, reading subscribed magazines, reading novels (ebooks), reading and downloading technical/craft pdfs, checking the weather/rain radar/warnings/forecasts, booking movie tickets, watching live TV anywhere in the house via EyeTV, looking up words in a dictionary/thesaurus, perusing the calendar for family events (especially anniversaries), checking my depth of field (photography), converting data, etc, etc. We have the 64GB version with wifi and 3G. For us the iPad would be much less useable without the 3G.
me commented:
PC users are like dinosaurs :)
Ipad users are like new born babies :)
you are free to choose either be a dinosaur or new born baby :)
peace!
ryuji commented:
if you use Ipad then consider yourself young and one who belongs to the future…
if you loath iPad then consider yourself a …dinousaur 
:)
no one wants to be a dinosaur! so get into Ipad
i got one!
peace to all.
Robin commented:
One difference between the ipad vs the other tablets. I am buying one for my 74 yr old mother-in-law. My sister is buying one for her 10yr old son as a reward for good grades. All our friends have one for their kids that are in elementary grades. Do you really think that will happen for the android, or other tablets any time soon? I enjoy the hobby of playing with new tech so I may get a xoom, but if I need something that needs to work, ipad has no competition.
Kurt commented:
Of all the people I know, only one has an ipad. Where all these hundreds of thousands of owners? A netbook trounces the ipad in terms of functionality and cost per function, so it seems to me that this is more of a marketing/go-with-the-crowd type of technology than anything else. I'll pass.
JohnP commented:
I own and iPad and will be getting a second. I carried multiple laptops around the world for many years. The iPad takes care of 80% of what I’d use a laptop for. (I have only the WiFi version). With the iPhone 4 as a hotspot, I would add another 10% to the usefullness of the iPad as I don’t care much for viewing on the iPhone. The MACbook connectivity via WiFi or iTunes finishes off the usefullness of the iPad (to 98%).
16G WiFI is plenty if you use it as intended, off-load images and video when they are sitting around doing nothing… that is the intent.
Apple is smart enough to not try and guess what 100% of customers would want so they added the capability into the 30 connector and let other business thrive developing cool stuff.
After buying my first iPad in Sept. 2010, I now own an iphone, ipod, and a Mac…..fast and flawless…
Where is the 2%? MAny companies don’t currently support apple for tools such as stock trading platforms, compilers, etc…etc…but you can bet with the popularity of the ipad and Apple in general that that will change.
aps commented:
It is frustrating that there is no USB and, even more so, no SD slot. However, it is not a general purpose replacement for laptops; it is meant to link or be supported by a ‘main’ computer. Once you all get past that, I think you will soften your views.
Buying advice: Don’t waste your time not getting a version that supports cellular - GSM allows you to use it in many more places than CDMA. This comment is especially true for the iPhone that exploit another advantage of GSM over CDMA. But, as others have said here, I look forward to an LTE version.
I wasn’t sure how or even if I would use the iPad and was prepared to return it or give it to someone. Typing on it took some getting used to. However, now, I carry it everywhere and sometimes I use it only though, when traveling, the laptop is not far (no farther than the hotel room).
But, I take notes; do both standards-compliant and Exchange-based email; surf the web (Flash notwithstanding and not much missed); look at and even modify Office and PDF documents, do on-line banking; plan trips via commercial flights and reserve hotels; do my own flight planning and navigation; read both Apple- and Amazon-purchased books; keep and read several magazines (even Spectrum); look at pictures; play games; refer to many medical, legal, technical references I maintain on the iPad, specialized calculators, star charts; watch stored full-length movies and or television episodes; etc. Not only that, it has full copies of my calendar (migrated from Newtons, Palms, Blackberries, for the last 15 years or so of entries) and address book (with >2300 entries).
I even use it to navigate. When I was in India, I used the standard Maps app to navigate around the country in some places (I rented and drove my own car). When the actual google maps were not adequate, the satellite view helped out.
It the thing perfect? No. Are there things I’d like to see in it? Yes. Is it pricey? Yes. Does apple work in mysterious ways? Yes. But, some of the vitriolic comments here seem way off the mark. Some of Apple’s decisions are very frustrating.
But, despite its shortcomings, I’ve found the form factor and the user experience wonderful and the iPad VERY useful! While I don’t know if I will be able to perceive the lower weight or appreciate the thinner dimensions of the iPad2, I plan on upgrading to take advantage of the cameras.
damon commented:
Ipad 2 is just a toy and not a computer.
It intends to no provide USB and Ethernet ports
etc so it will never be able to replace a Macbook.
Kris commented:
I admit that I do not understand Apple’s new product philosophy – couple weeks ago I stopped at their store. And boy! I stormed out five times faster than entered a door. All their displays are so glossy that one can shave (or do make-up) using them. Unfortunately, in my mind the pictures and graphics are so blurred by reflections that I’m wondering what happened with Apple’s legendary graphics orientation?
As far as I’m concerned – no their product offers any acceptable display quality.
iPad – I would not use it even if it’s free. As a matter of fact, recently I got an invitation to attend a special event, with a chance to win one of ten iPads. Needless to say I did not go – I was afraid I could be given one…
TD commented:
I still don’t understand why you can’t connect an IPOD to the thing and synchronize music. Why do you HAVE to connect it to a computer just to get tunes shared between two portable devices.
Ken commented:
We bought one last fall for travels to AU and NZ - nice compact design and light weight. Unfortunately WiFi is nearly non-existent in those places, so we didn't get to use the internet very often. My wife found she loves solitaire when we travel. My four year old granddaughter loves it. Enough said.
Jeff commented:
I was thinking of buying one for my wife this last Christmas, but the more I looked into it, the more un-impressed I became. The breaking point was when I discovered that there was no way to upgrade memory. Want more memory? Buy a new one.
JoeD commented:
*Yawn*
Dieter commented:
I agree with tuconics - iPads are toys. Every person I have seen travelling with an iPad still carry their laptop/netbooks - why - it’s good looking but not featured correctly for its purpose. Just more cables and weight to fly with.
tucsonics commented:
Real business men carry laptops. iPads are toys.
GLUI commented:
Is it still worth to pursue for iPad 2 if there is no big break through of design ?
SomdayIWill commented:
Looks like they are going to milk making a real usefull unit for 2 more generations.
Brian Dipert commented:
Dear davidh,
Carry an inexpensive, small travel router with you on trips, as I do?
davidh commented:
From one folk that has to travel internationally, no purchase until there is wired internet capability.
GeorgeIoak commented:
You have to tip your hat to the Apple designers on how they are always able to improve and innovate. I wonder if the lack of the SD card is a revenue decision to get people to buy the higher density SKUs. Too bad it wasn’t included as I had heard that was going to be one of the added items.
Brian Dipert commented:
Dear Davem,
Yes, but as the saying goes, 'the devil's in the details'
Davem commented:
Exactly as predicted. O' come on. Do we expect anything different from iAPPLE. Every generation of iPad will be faster, lighter, etc. Just like iPod and iPhone.
