Awakenings in a bleak midwinter

One common image used to represent the semiconductor industry (and most technology sectors) since the beginning of the Big Freeze has been that of the hibernating bear. If we’re in the middle of a bear market, it certainly is appropriate to let Yogi sleep the clock around. And if this recession ends up lasting the better part of two years, a good sleep may just what is required to keep the bear from getting grumpy. Unfortunately, a programmable-logic industry that enters suspended animation does no one much good. Fortunately, there are indications that not everyone plans to spend 2009 in slumber.

Believe it or not, there are still hardware and application-software startups in the FPGA realm who are toughing their way through a funding drought. For example, we can expect Tier Logic, the company formerly known as Viciciv Technology, to show off some performance results for new architectures in 2009. Among the market leaders, Xilinx Inc. plans a media day for analysts and journalists in late January, to set the stage for product family enhancements in the year ahead.

When Altera CEO John Daane was interviewed in India last month, he suggested that a downturn might represent an opportunity to replace more ASSPs and ASICs with FPGAs, and that his company might weather the storm. Was Daane guilty of irrational exuberance? Perhaps. But maybe he was recognizing something about recession-induced slumber that everyone in the FPGA industry should take to heart: You snooze, you lose.