It’s not just a good idea, it’s the law

How do you make design decisions? Do you just use whatever worked last time or are you constantly looking for the next new part and design tool to make your designs better and your life easier? Chances are, as an EDN reader, you’re constantly looking. But do you really know how you make those all-important design decisions? This blog is devoted to helping you think about the way you make those choices.

Philosopher, essayist, poet, and novelist George Santayanna wrote in 1905, “Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” That same year, Lee DeForest applied for his first Audion patent. A year later, DeForest invented the vacuum-tube triode and the electronics industry was born. We now have more than 100 years of industry history—mounds of data available for mining a few truths.

Figure 1: Makimoto's Wave (click for bigger image)

One of those truths is the cyclic nature of our industry and one of the most famous observations about recent cycles, in semiconductors, is Makimoto’s Wave. While working for Sony in 1987, Dr. Tsugio Makimoto, an IEEE, fellow, identified a 10-year cycle in the semiconductor industry, stretching back to 1957. Essentially, Makimoto’s Wave identifies the cyclic oscillation between standardized and customized semiconductors with a 10-year cycle (see Figure 1 above and click on it to see a larger version of the image).

Based on my long-term association with EDN, I’ve also observed a 10-year industry cycle relating to the widespread adoption of technologies for electronic system design. “Leibson’s Law” refers to my observation that any disruptive design technology takes about 10 years to become successful and widespread. The number of examples where this 10-year lag seems true is legion—transistors, ICs, microprocessors, C for embedded applications, logic synthesis, and ASICs—just to name a few. This blog is called “Leibson’s Law,” and was unintentionally given its name by EDN’s Editor-in-Chief Maury Wright in EDN's September 28, 2006 issue. Maury subsequently invited me to blog for EDN and I’ve accepted the challenge.

Back in the early 1970s, I read issues of EDN at the public library while I was in High School. Later, I read issues in my college’s engineering library. Then I subscribed to EDN when I worked as an engineer and engineering manager. I joined EDN as a regional editor in 1985 and constantly wrote about new technologies. I finally left EDN a little more than 10 years ago. Now I’m back, as a contributing editor and blogger. (Full disclosure: I'm also Tensilica's Technology Evangelist.) With this blog, I hope to look at new technology developments, through the lens of history whenever possible. I invite you to take this journey with me, and to send examples (and counterexamples) of Leibson’s Law for debate. Hit the comment button, early and often.