This year in gEEk: 2008 review, a look at 2009, and why the monsters are due on Semi Street

Ah, here we are again. The very last page of 2008’s calendar is just about to be flipped and we all know what that means: Poorly sung and mostly inaccurate versions of "Auld Lang Syne" at cocktail parties, the annual Sci Fi channel "Twilight Zone" marathon (which I will watch in its near entirety and then not be able to sleep until Martian Luther King, Jr. day), and the traditional look back at the year and the look forward to what the next year has in store.

I’ll be happy to flip the page on Thursday. After the beating this economy has taken in the last year, especially the last three months, we could all "take a cup of kindness, yet."

To be true, there were good points for 2008. The US election, depending on your stance, was a reason to celebrate. As was the solar industry, which made some tremendous tech strides in 2008  and looks to be weathering the storm, just as many green power segments are doing. Netbooks also are offering some promise, not only as a buoy to the already positive notebook industry but as a way to spread computer literacy and access to the Internet to lower income individuals and countries.

Yet, the frightening number of electronics industry layoffs gives reason to pause and to get yourself prepared if you aren’t already in case of a layoff emergency. Scandals wreaked havoc this year, as top industry engineers turned execs faced SEC fraud charges and powerful companies like Siemens were charged fines for bribery.  Murder stained the industry’s history. Lawsuits abounded and threatened to impact the broad electronics supply chain. And Wall Street — ouch, the stock market — showed no cushioning, slamming major consumer electronics makers like Apple, and semiconductor giants like Intel and AMD, despite financial analysts crediting their technologies at numerous times throughout the year.

As we move into 2009, most predications for the semiconductor and its related electronics industries expect the darkness to continue, at least for the first half. Gartner has stated that the worst is yet to come and, like many of its fellow market research firms, has predicted a double-digit fall in semiconductor industry revenues next year.

So it’s easy to become anxious or even depressed when looking to the new year ahead. But there are glimmers of hope. Be sure to read why IC Insights’ Bill McClean thinks our industry will start to recover in mid-2009  for a brighter view. McClean has also reported that there could be a DRAM price surge and recovery coming, if the memory segment would stop self sabotaging with low average selling prices, too much supply, and uneven competition. 

Unfortunately, all of this looking back at 2008/looking forward at 2009 weighs on the mind at this time of the year, no matter what industry you work in and especially during times of economic turmoil. As I’m sure many of you haven’t be able to do, I haven’t been able to turn off the work half of my brain lately when I shut down my PC at night and I’m sure I’ll be mulling all of this over while I wait for my favorite Twilight Zone episode, "The Monsters are due on Maple Street," to air sometime on New Year’s Eve. 

For the non-Rod Serling fans out there, Monsters on Maple Street is the one where Martian observers obstruct a tree-lined suburban street’s power and telephone service, as well as their 1960’s consumer electronics (ie radios and TVs), with no reason apparent to the Earthlings. The neighbors become paranoid, suspicious, and fearful of each other, eventually becoming hysterical and destroying themselves.

In the closing narration, Serling says "For the record, prejudices can kill, and suspicion can destroy, and a thoughtless, frightened search for a scapegoat has a fallout all of its own." I’m sure this quote will replay in my head numerous times in the next week at friend and family gatherings where I will no doubt be asked several times how the electronics industry is doing amid the economic breakdown, why prices are so low, and when I think it will all improve.

My answer: Drink your cup of kindness (or vodka or gin or whatever it takes) and get ready for a rocky 2009. But remember, there is light at the end of the tunnel. You just have to remain calm and focused to get there.

Have a happy and healthy new year, folks.
Cheers for a better 2009-
Suzanne Deffree, EDN