Swine Flu: Hogwash or serious threat to electronics business?
What’s more contagious: H1N1 Flu, more commonly known as Swine Flu, or fear of H1N1 Flu? I’m not a doctor, but I’m going to guess it’s the fear.
Swine Flu is a serious issue, one that demands precaution be taken to minimize further spread. But before more quarantines go into effect and before it gets to the level of panic that was seen with SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) six years back, give yourself a little perspective.
According to data updated today at 11am eastern by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there have been 279 officially reported human cases of Swine Flu in the United States and a lone one death across 36 states. This editor’s home state of New York has recorded about a quarter of the US cases, 73. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there have been 1085 cases officially reported in 21 counties and 26 deaths among them (25 in Mexico and the one noted in the US).
But as comparison, 36,000 people died of influenza (common flu)-related causes each year during the 1990s in the US alone, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports.
As happened with SARS in 2003, Swine Flu has become the new cautionary buzz term, splashed across newspaper front pages and teased in TV news broadcasts before commercial breaks. True, WHO reports that SARS did cause 774 deaths among the 8,098 people in some two dozen countries who became sick with the viral respiratory illness during the 2003 outbreak, but it also spread fear rapidly beyond its infection center in the Asia-Pacific region. At the time, several companies based outside of the region closed plants and disrupted manufacturing, enforced travel bans, and delayed transportation of product, jeopardizing the availability of semiconductors, electronic components, low-level assemblies, and system product, on as little as the suggestion of SARS.
Signs of panic are beginning to show with Swine Flu. WHO has advised no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders — in fact, it states "Limiting travel and imposing travel restrictions would have very little effect on stopping the virus from spreading, but would be highly disruptive to the global community." Yet, a handful of electronics companies including Sharp, Sony, and Panasonic have already begun to steer corporate travelers away from Mexico, according to reports. I suspect it won’t be long before we begin hearing about temporary plant shutdowns in Mexico and before companies start to blame sagging financial results on the virus.
If you are concerned about the impact of Swine Flu on the semiconductor industry, don’t get infected with the growing mass hysteria. Instead, look for some trustworthy, level-headed industry sources. SEMI, a smart source, is hosting a free set of webcasts dubbed "Responding to the Current Global Swine Flu Pandemic." The first webcast is this Wednesday at 7:30am pacific time, and the second webcast is Monday at 5pm pacific time. Visit this page for more information and to register.
SEMI also just created a page on its site, "Preparing for Infectious Disease Pandemics," that included information on the Swine Flu, SARS, and the Bird Flu, among other diseases and viruses.
When reading reports on Swine Flu and listening in on webcasts like the above, stay grounded. Hysteria spreads faster than any epidemic ever could and the last thing this economy needs is panic over what is, when put in perspective, a serious but relatively minor situation as of now.
Share your thoughts below on the public’s and industry’s reaction to Swine Flu thus far. Has it been fair or has it gone hog wild over hogwash?
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