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Swine Flu: Hogwash or serious threat to electronics business?

May 4, 2009

What’s more contagious: H1N1 Flu, more commonly known as Swine Flu, or fear of H1N1 Flu? I’m not a doctor, but I’m going to guess it’s the fear.

Swine Flu is a serious issue, one that demands precaution be taken to minimize further spread. But before more quarantines go into effect and before it gets to the level of panic that was seen with SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) six years back, give yourself a little perspective. 

According to data updated today at 11am eastern by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there have been 279 officially reported human cases of Swine Flu in the United States and a lone one death across 36 states. This editor’s home state of New York has recorded about a quarter of the US cases, 73. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there have been 1085 cases officially reported in 21 counties and 26 deaths among them (25 in Mexico and the one noted in the US).

But as comparison, 36,000 people died of influenza (common flu)-related causes each year during the 1990s in the US alone, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports.

As happened with SARS in 2003, Swine Flu has become the new cautionary buzz term, splashed across newspaper front pages and teased in TV news broadcasts before commercial breaks. True, WHO reports that SARS did cause 774 deaths among the 8,098 people in some two dozen countries who became sick with the viral respiratory illness during the 2003 outbreak, but it also spread fear rapidly beyond its infection center in the Asia-Pacific region. At the time, several companies based outside of the region closed plants and disrupted manufacturing, enforced travel bans, and delayed transportation of product, jeopardizing the availability of semiconductors, electronic components, low-level assemblies, and system product, on as little as the suggestion of SARS.

Signs of panic are beginning to show with Swine Flu. WHO has advised no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders — in fact, it states "Limiting travel and imposing travel restrictions would have very little effect on stopping the virus from spreading, but would be highly disruptive to the global community." Yet, a handful of electronics companies including Sharp, Sony, and Panasonic have already begun to steer corporate travelers away from Mexico, according to reports. I suspect it won’t be long before we begin hearing about temporary plant shutdowns in Mexico and before companies start to blame sagging financial results on the virus.

If you are concerned about the impact of Swine Flu on the semiconductor industry, don’t get infected with the growing mass hysteria. Instead, look for some trustworthy, level-headed industry sources. SEMI, a smart source, is hosting a free set of webcasts dubbed "Responding to the Current Global Swine Flu Pandemic." The first webcast is this Wednesday at 7:30am pacific time, and the second webcast is Monday at 5pm pacific time. Visit this page for more information and to register.

SEMI also just created a page on its site, "Preparing for Infectious Disease Pandemics," that included information on the Swine Flu, SARS, and the Bird Flu, among other diseases and viruses.

When reading reports on Swine Flu and listening in on webcasts like the above, stay grounded. Hysteria spreads faster than any epidemic ever could and the last thing this economy needs is panic over what is, when put in perspective, a serious but relatively minor situation as of now.

Share your thoughts below on the public’s and industry’s reaction to Swine Flu thus far. Has it been fair or has it gone hog wild over hogwash?

Posted by Suzanne Deffree on May 4, 2009 | Comments (7)

December 8, 2009
In response to: Swine Flu: Hogwash or serious threat to electronics business?
Skeptic commented:

Techtool - there's a profound difference between "hysteria" and "skepticism" or "concern". In one case, we create fear by asserting adjectives such as "mortality", "pandemic". . . . . in the other case, we ask questions. If there is a rational distinction that can be made between the current strain of H1N1 and more common seasonal infuenza variants - it has not been clearly stated in a manner which is consumble by the broader population. Unfortunately from EVERYTHING we've been told to date, in terms of mortality, in terms of preventive measures, and in terms of curative response - - H1N1 is, for all intents an purposes - no different from seasonal infuenza. Kevin Szabo - - MOST strains of influenza possess the fundamental ability to quickly mutate and increase in their rate of mortality - is H1N1 demonstrably different in its ability to mutate ? The answers to this and other so blatantly obvious unanswered questions are already at work seriously challenging the credibility of WHO and CDC. If and when there *is* a serious threat, many will now recall the "false alarm" of H1N1.


November 25, 2009
In response to: Swine Flu: Hogwash or serious threat to electronics business?
John commented:

We had the same thing with the 1976 flu and many died from the shot my mother in law was one of them. It was some time later that she got Guillain Barre as did so many from the shot. That is also happening from the shot now. Google it before thinking about getting the shot.


May 7, 2009
In response to: Swine Flu: Hogwash or serious threat to electronics business?
Anonymous Coward commented:

Why is it considered acceptable for companies to inflict a "travel ban" on their employees at all? If governments do not see a large enough problem to close a border then I do not see where corporations get off telling their employees what to do with their vacation time. I find it galling at a deep level to find that the stick used to enforce this is the nullification of your medical benefits. There is notably no carrot to go along with it. If this is considered "OK" then what is to keep them from doing the same thing about smoking, skiing, driving a motorcycle, or anything else that could negatively impact the corporate health insurance budget?


May 5, 2009
In response to: Swine Flu: Hogwash or serious threat to electronics business?
Kevin Szabo commented:

Of course the media likes a good story, so there is a fair bit of overexposure. However, I have a friend who was near the front line (respiratory tech in Ottawa), with colleagues in Toronto. SARS never reached Ottawa, but we were ready to ship all our ventilators to T.O. if the quarantine failed to contain the virus. Remember that SARS killed between 10% - 20% of the people it infected. And it was a pretty horrible death (not that there is really a good one). So this is the concern with H1N1. No one knows if it will mutate and become deadly. So far we are lucky. If the disease control wasn't doing the process they are following now, and there were much larger number of fatalities, you can be sure that they would be held up for ridicule and continuous inquests for the rest of their lives. Also realize that there are still people that thought Y2K wasn't real and will never connect the billions of dollars of investment to make sure our infrastucture didn't fall over. Different threat, similar hype, and similar incorrect 20/20 hindsight on the situation. So I think the WHO and others are correct to be cautious. I applaud them.


May 5, 2009
In response to: Swine Flu: Hogwash or serious threat to electronics business?
Sanjay Baliga (SEMI Senior Manager) commented:

If you have questions about corporate flu pandemic response (and affects to the semiconductor supply chain) please forward them to me at sbaliga@semi.org. I'll try to introduce the questions during the webcast. Thanks.


May 5, 2009
In response to: Swine Flu: Hogwash or serious threat to electronics business?
TechTool commented:

You''re generating hysteria about supposed hysteria.


May 4, 2009
In response to: Swine Flu: Hogwash or serious threat to electronics business?
Stimpy commented:

Good antidote to the media fed hysteria. What's the best way to treat infected pigs? Use plenty of hog-wash.

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