LEDs for lighting: Efficiency is not enough
What is the world’s appetite for light? What if an increase in lighting efficiency does not result in less energy consumed, but in more lighting used for the same amount of energy? This question was posed by Jeff Tsao, a researcher at Sandia National Labs, who studies the technology and economics of lighting. He gave a summary of his research and analysis on the implications of lighting efficiency at the opening session of the Strategies in Light conference last week.
Tsao looked at data on the consumption of artificial light worldwide for the past three hundred years, which covers the introduction of five different lighting technologies: candles, kerosene, gas, incandescent, fluorescent/ high-intensity discharge.
Over the past 300 years the world has spent a constant 0.72% of its gross domestic product (GDP) on artificial lighting. This observation (and it’s an observation, not a law) translates in the US to the equivalent of 17 100W light bulbs turned on during the waking hours of every person, while in Africa the usage is the equivalent of one ½W light bulb burning for every person’s waking hours.
But how does this relationship between GDP and lighting usage account for increases in the cost of energy (COE)? COE affects the lighting usage equation by driving down the GDP. That is, people will consume less energy for lighting only if the COE increases or their standard of living in general goes down, not because lighting becomes more efficient. As lighting because more efficient – that is, it becomes cheaper – then lighting usage will go up. This follows intuitively from knowing that in general people consume more as things’ costs go down, which is what happens when lighting becomes more efficient.
So is the move towards LED-based solid-state lighting really an effective strategy to lower energy consumption? Maybe, but only if it’s paired with an increase in productivity.
COE plays a major role in GDP, but it’s not the only factor: Another way to increase GDP is to become more productive. Throughout history, lighting has helped productivity. As lighting technology advanced (kerosene to gas lamps to electricity), lighting became cleaner, took less time to turn on/off, room heating decreased, and fire hazards decreased. The conclusion Tsao reached from his study is that efficiency alone will not result in a decrease in energy consumption: It must be accompanied by an increase in productivity.
Here’s a likely conclusion we can draw based on this study: The killer app for LEDs is not going to be a replacement bulb for 40W home lights – that’s not going to increase anyone’s productivity. The opportunities for LED lighting will be in applications that have inherent intelligence, and can interact with their environments and humans in ways that make both of them more productive and intelligent.
Interested in how LEDs will acquire intelligence and enhance productivity? Attend EDN’s free LED Workshop, April 30th, in Santa Clara, CA.
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