20 years later, we still have 40 years of oil left

June 14, 2007

BP Statistical Review of World Energy released a report that estimated there are enough world petroleum reserves to last for 40 years, assuming we consume at our current rates. The article notes that in the 1980’s the amount of proven reserves was also 40 years. 20 years go by, consumption rates change, new customers change, new oil fields are found, old ones produce more, and voila, is we’re good to go for another 40 years of oil.

Pssh. So many things will change in the next 40 years – non-petroleum-powered cars, government regulations on green-house gas, etc – that trying to predict that far out is mostly useless. But the exercise itself is worthwhile because of all the key points it brings out. Such as:

–Two-thirds of oil reserves are in the Middle East.

–The fossil fuel that’s seen the fastest increase in consumption is coal, because that’s the kind of power stations that are being built in China. And yes, burning coal creates more grenn-house emissions than any other form of energy.

–The world’s proven reserves of natural gas rose slightly, and are enough to provide more than 60 years of current consumption.

–There is a theory held by some economist that oil is already at its peak. Not so, says BP. "We don’t believe there is an absolute resource constraint. When peak oil comes, it is just as likely to come from consumption peaking, perhaps because of climate change policies or for some other reason, as from production peaking."

Posted by Margery Conner on June 14, 2007 | Comments (8)

January 22, 2008

In response to: 20 years later, we still have 40 years of oil left
Meredith Poor commented:

I can make long chain hydrocarbons by exposing methane to 'vacuum uv', in other words UV below 200 nm, and more particularly, at 121.6nm. I can get methane from decaying plant matter. I can also make it through the 'Bosch Process', which is to combine hydrogen and CO2 at 500 degrees C at 10 atmospheres in a nickle/tin catylst. Given these two processes, I can start with CO2 and Water and end up with any motor fuel you care to name. This being the case, we will never run out of oil, although only rich people may be able to afford it.

November 27, 2007

In response to: 20 years later, we still have 40 years of oil left
Victor commented:

The Reserves were brought here by comets, meteors and other planets colliding with ours.

October 19, 2007

In response to: 20 years later, we still have 40 years of oil left
Pete commented:

Coal and oil are cheap! Alternative sources will predominate when their costs(financial and ergonomic) become lower. The answer of course is to tax the carbon, not as a source of funds for any purpose but for the disincentive of continuing our carbon based economy. PBMRs from Westinghouse (Toshiba) furnish cheap, distributed electical power. Yes, they can be in my backyard. Much better than an oil refinery.

July 3, 2007

In response to: 20 years later, we still have 40 years of oil left
Norm commented:

Response to Toy (and anyone else who holds this misconception): Oil and other fossil fuels are not the result of dead dinosaurs. They are the remains of plants and microorganisms that underwent a chemical change brought about by heat and pressure and time. Most fossil fuels had already formed by the time the dinosaurs came on the scene.

June 20, 2007

In response to: 20 years later, we still have 40 years of oil left
Diana Lupascu commented:

Hello to everyone, Other 40 year resources are nothing, when we think at our children and at their children?s. 40 years resources still available 20 years ago, it was a mistake, 40 years from now on it could be a mistake also. My only hope is that beside any other oil or coal resources, I?m just preoccupied of what I can do, because unfortunately I can not count on Industry where all are interested on market share and so on and I could not count so much on Government that is to BIG to move and save this PLANET! SWICH OFF THE LIGHT WHEN YOU DON?T NEED IT! Bye and hear you in 2047.

June 19, 2007

In response to: 20 years later, we still have 40 years of oil left
TOY JONES commented:

OIL IS NOT A FOSSIL FUEL, SOMETHING IN THE EARTH IS PRODUCING OIL, BACTERIA MAYBE? NO DINOSAURS DIE 5 TO 10 MILES DOWN.

June 15, 2007

In response to: 20 years later, we still have 40 years of oil left
G. R. L. Cowan, former hydrogen-energy f commented:

A fossil carbon tax is a fossil carbon profit. A "next-generation energy research fund" that depends on C tax revenues is rewarded for failure. Researchers who were funded in proportion to how far the total fossil-C tax revenue fell short of its value this year would be rewarded for success.

June 15, 2007

In response to: 20 years later, we still have 40 years of oil left
Zoltan commented:

Peak Oil is not a theory of economists, but of geologists and reservoir engineers. Their argument is not really based on the size of proven reserves, the key factor is if new drilling can keep up with decline of supergiant fields.

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