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Margery Conner

Reality check: GM only sees 200k Volts sold by 2015?

July 10, 2008

An article in the Detroit News today [via the excellent GM-Volt blog] said the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is revising its proposal of earlier this year that the car companies have to achieve a 25% increase in fuel economy in the 2011 to 2015 model years. But since the NHTSA made its proposal there has been a lot of publicity about how GM is pouring money into advanced technology to develop hybrid and extended-range electric vehicles such as the Volt. So the NHTSA has come back to all of the car companies and asked them to revised their mileage estimates and include, in GM’s case, the Volt.

CHevy Volt GM said, whoa, hold on: While the Volt is "game-changing technology," nonetheless, "We strongly discourage NHTSA from applying either PHEV or EREV technology in any significant volume in its … model during the 2011-2015 timeframe.” The article quoted a person familiar with the company’s plans who said GM "expected to produce less than 200,000 Volts in the first five years of production and many of those would be exported to other markets."

Although GM has never officially set a price for the Volt, its public hints have the price hovering at right around $40k, with the company still losing money on every Volt sold. The car’s relatively high price, combined with the GM’s likely reluctance to produce millions of a car it can’t make a profit on may combine to make the low 200k sales volume real. So is GM’s claimed $1B investment in the Volt simply a $1B PR stunt?

Regardless of whether they sell one or a million Volts, I can’t imagine why GM would give one iota of support to the NHTSA that would allow the government agency to justify raising the CAFE mileage numbers when GM, like all the other car companies, is fighting the CAFE standards tooth and nail. It’s kind of comical to see GM talking "game-changing technology" in one breath, while in the next say "…no significant volume." But you can’t expect them to the hand the government any ammunition when GM has made its hatred of CAFE standards quite clear. Regardless of how many lithium-ion-powered cars GM plans on selling in 2015, it won’t be bragging about it to the NHTSA.

Posted by Margery Conner on July 10, 2008 | Comments (11)

July 22, 2008

In response to: Reality check: GM only sees 200k Volts sold by 2015?
Carl S commented:

Why do people accuse GM of foul play for not producing electric cars? Toyota & Honda don't make them either. It's not a viable product.

July 22, 2008

In response to: Reality check: GM only sees 200k Volts sold by 2015?
Eddy Electron commented:

Only 200K Volts by 2015? Yes GM probably intends to be a lot smaller company by then.

July 14, 2008

In response to: Reality check: GM only sees 200k Volts sold by 2015?
Brett Bowden commented:

"MikeinNJ said: Why are Li-on batteries so expensive?" Does anyone know the answer to this? Only thing I can figure is that the manufacturing process is complex (purity?) because it sure doesn't seem like it is the raw materials.

July 13, 2008

In response to: Reality check: GM only sees 200k Volts sold by 2015?
lawstu commented:

the battery pack costs $10,000 and will ONLY deliver a 20 mile range!! Tesla is getting a 220 MILE range with a battery pack that costs $20,000 according to their CFO and VC meetings. What the hell is going on here? Tesla can buy a battery pack for $20,000 and GM is spending half as much but only getting 1/10 the range. GM is not a game player. They are addicted to oil. The VOLT is a PR stunt to get the Federal government green credit to bail them out from Chapter 11 Bankruptcy which they will hit hard by the end middle 2009 or end of that year. It sucks when GM is burning billions so quickly without gas hungry high margin SUVs to offset the rising costs and lower sales across the board. They''ve sold everything that was of value. What now? Raid the VEBE healthcare fund? The stock is in the ground and the cost of credit through the sky. Put a fork in Volt is not a savor but a trojan horse.

July 13, 2008

In response to: Reality check: GM only sees 200k Volts sold by 2015?
lawstud commented:

the battery pack costs $10,000 and will ONLY deliver a 20 mile range!! Tesla is getting a 220 MILE range with a battery pack that costs $20,000 according to their CFO and VC meetings. What the hell is going on here? Tesla can buy a battery pack for $20,000 and GM is spending half as much but only getting 1/10 the range. GM is not a game player. They are addicted to oil. The VOLT is a PR stunt to get the Federal government green credit to bail them out from Chapter 11 Bankruptcy which they will hit hard by the end middle 2009 or end of that year. It sucks when GM is burning billions so quickly without gas hungry high margin SUVs to offset the rising costs and lower sales across the board. They''''ve sold everything that was of value. What now? Raid the VEBE healthcare fund? The stock is in the ground and the cost of credit through the sky. Put a fork in Volt is not a savor but a trojan horse.

July 11, 2008

In response to: Reality check: GM only sees 200k Volts sold by 2015?
common sense commented:

What GM really wants to do is wait until we get more accustomed to the high gas prices and then start pumping out more big SUVs. They make big money selling those gas-guzzling, entropy-contributing battle wagons, and they are designed to fall apart. Their psychologists are busy at work trying to figure out how to brain-wash the public that they still need to drive those big boats. And if you don't belive me, go talk to a person of physically small stature who drives one of these.

July 11, 2008

In response to: Reality check: GM only sees 200k Volts sold by 2015?
bff commented:

It is time to dig up Tucker.

July 11, 2008

In response to: Reality check: GM only sees 200k Volts sold by 2015?
MikeinNJ commented:

Why are Li-on batteries so expensive? Any company can buy a battery winder and start cranking out batteries by the boat load. What's the cost of plastic and lithium salts(aka dirt) anyway ? I smell a rat...

July 11, 2008

In response to: Reality check: GM only sees 200k Volts sold by 2015?
MikeinNJ commented:

GM the company famous for "Planned Obsolesence" is going to price the Volt out of the market for good reason. They can claim they introduced electric cars to the market but the public did not want them (deja vue). Secondly and most important -- electric cars are virtually maintenance free and long-lived (20+yrs). GM profit projections probably show them loosing money on future sales. That's why non of the major car companies will have a true electric car (or series hybrid) on the market at prices we can afford. Sad, but that's why big companies suck. Maybe we can convince Steve Jobs to to get into the auto business. I'd rather buy a car from Apple than from GM/Ford/Chrysler.

July 11, 2008

In response to: Reality check: GM only sees 200k Volts sold by 2015?
bff commented:

The funny thing about GM is that they are so short sighted. They may have already invested the most money into EVs of any other company, yet with this huge advantage they would rather let Toyota win the game again.

July 11, 2008

In response to: Reality check: GM only sees 200k Volts sold by 2015?
Bob Briggs commented:

Why not pull a trailer with a Motor/Generator and trunk for longer road trips that would convert the Volt to a hybrid?

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