450mm: Not in This Decade

By Ed Sperling -- 7/14/2006

Now that 300mm technology is becoming mainstream, analysts and chipmakers are beginning to talk about 450mm wafers. But this time, it appears to be just talk.

Both Applied Materials and Novellus, two of the biggest makers of capital equipment for building wafers, say the option isn’t even on the foreseeable horizon. And while executives at both companies do not discount it could happen someday, that day is a long way off.

“Eventually, at the right time, there will be enough impetus for 450mm,” said Mike Splinter, president and CEO of Applied Materials. “But volumes have to grow significantly for there to be enough motivation. We’re nowhere near reaching the potential of 300mm.”

He noted that 300mm has anywhere between six and eight more generations of process nodes before it will be necessary to consider 450mm. “I don’t think in the next 10 years it’s viable.”

Rick Hill, chairman and CEO of Novellus Systems, agreed. “The industry can’t afford it [migration to 450mm]. If you look at 300mm, it’s been productive for the semiconductor industry and it’s been anathema for the equipment business. It shrinks our volume, yet our R&D costs are going up. The competitive nature has gone up such that the margins have shrunk. The reality is that 450mm would be the same thing. Unless it’s funded by the semiconductor industry, it won’t happen.”

Both Hill and Splinter said they expect to be long retired by the time 450mm wafers begin rolling out of fabs. In the meantime, both say there is much work to be done at the current wafer size.

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