NAND flash demand bit growth to exceed 130% in 2008

By Suzanne Deffree, Managing Editor, News -- 1/9/2008

Demand for NAND flash is positive within the electronics supply chain, according to a study from DRAMeXchange, which today projected that demand bit growth is expected to surpass 130% year over year in 2008.

The memory-market intelligence and analysis company said that shipments of the four major applications of NAND -- handset, MP3/PMP, digital camera, and USB flash drive (UFD) -- are all set to pick up this year. Specifically, DRAMeXchange estimated that the demand shipment trend for handset will grow by 10% year over year to 1.23 billion, with more than half of the shipped handsets to include an external memory card slot; digital camera shipments to grow by more than 14% year over year to 130 million; UFD to grow by 25% year over year to 170 million; and MP3/PMP to grow by 20% year over year to 200 million, with about 85% of these devices to adopt NAND flash as the chief storage media. 

Meanwhile, supply bit growth is expected to be 130% to 140% this year, according to DRAMeXchange. The company reported that most suppliers are expected to advance their production 5x nm-class process node with capacity breakdown in 5x nm-class process node expected to surpass 60% this year.

DRAMeXchange further said that Apple will continue to exert a strong influence over the NAND price trend. The research company said it expects tight supply in Q3 is still likely, as Apple usually starts increasing its procurement amount in Q3 to feed holiday season demand. The company’s comments echo earlier predictions made by iSuppli Corp, estimating a Q3 2008 demand and pricing recover for NAND flash.  In late 2007, iSuppli noted Apple’s iPod touch and iPhone as high NAND demand consumer electronics. The high-end version of the touch includes 16 Gbytes of NAND flash memory, more than any product in the Apple iPod line, while the high-end iPhone comes in at 8 Gbytes of NAND flash, according to the company.

DRAMeXchange also noted that it has observed low-cost PC and SSD as the other factors determining the market equilibrium. "Whether low-cost PC, such as Asustek’s Eee PC, could sustain its buoyant sales as observed in Q4 2007, and whether SSD in SATA and SATA II interfaces will see more penetration at major [notebook] vendors, play vital roles. If demand from these two applications sustains strongly, a relatively stable pricing environment is likely as opposed to the previous two years," said DRAMeXchange in a statement.

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