Brian's Brain

I have been, I realize, writing a great deal of late about the rising price of oil. But there is, I think, a valid reason for this fuel fixation. I believe that, assuming recent cost increase trends continue (and I believe they will, considering political instability and Peak Oil factors, among others), this single issue may redefine society more than any other I've yet encountered (or will encounter) in my lifetime. Bigger than the Pill (which, strictly speaking, was U.S. FDA-approved six years before my birth). Bigger than the first Moon walk (no, not that one). Bigger than the Internet. And yes, bigger than the recent likely discovery of water on Mars or the Moon (although, perhaps not bigger than any subsequent discovery of the past or present existence of life on the Red Planet).

By means of explanation, let me tell you about last weekend. Instead of heading to the High Sierra Music Festival or backpacking with my dog (which was my backup plan until smoke dulled my enthusiasm), I headed down to the San Francisco Bay Area (along with my dog) to visit with friends. My usual habit, I confess, is to calibrate the cruise control a few MPH above the speed limit but, as an experiment, this time I set it right at 65. The results were interesting, for a number of reasons:

1. I didn't arrive at my 200+ mile one-way-away destination substantially slower than in the past
2. Conversely, I burned tangibly less gasoline (though from an absolute sense, I still burned a lot of gasoline)
3. And, by mostly hanging out in the far-right lane the whole time, I was far less stressed than I remembered being on past trips.

But enough about me. Here's what else I observed:

1. The highways were quite barren, at all hours of day and night that I was on them, and
2. Of the folks who were on the road, a good quarter of them were (like me) going the speed limit, and I'd estimate around 10% (in all shapes and sizes of vehicles, not just pickup trucks and SUVs) were traveling 5-10 MPH below the speed limit.

Admittedly, plenty of single-Neanderthal-occupied and Oakland Raiders paraphernalia-clad Escalades, Excursions, Hummers, Ridgelines, Sequoias and Titans were still screaming down the tarmac at 80+ MPH (am I going to get grief from some readers for saying that). And admittedly, some of the behavior I saw in the slow-movers (along with the stay-at-homers) is probably short-term, reflective of the fact that gas prices have at least temporarily overshot the theoretically matching pace of incomes from an inflationary standpoint. But I believe a long-term transportation transition is also underway, one that's also reflected in daily newspaper reports of clogged public transit systems. And, although I welcome the change from environmental and political standpoints, I'm not sure whether the net result will be sociologically positive or negative.

My current living situation and core personality, I confess, may be somewhat coloring my outlook. As I've mentioned before, I live in a small mountain town, one even smaller (and substantially so) from a population standpoint in the 'shoulder' seasons between winter and summer, since most residences here are 'second homes'. I'm a fifteen-minute drive from downtown in good weather, a journey that can stretch to nearly an hour in heavy snow (assuming, that is, I can even get out my driveway). I generally batch my errands so I only need to go into downtown Truckee once or twice a week. And with gas nearing $5 a gallon here, I don't even fire up my car to drive 1+ miles to the mailbox cluster anymore; instead, I go for a jog or a hike. I live alone (four-legged kids aside). And my personality leans towards the introverted side of the spectrum (as do, I'd wager, the personalities of many of you who are regular readers).

With those qualifiers out of the way, and judging both from my experiences last weekend and from the news reports I've been following in recent months, I suspect a lifestyle such as mine is going to become increasingly common in years to come. The 'cheap gas'-fueled era of driving long distances to see a movie at a multiplex, or to shop at a mall or 'big box' retailer, is coming to a close; instead, folks will rely on the Internet for entertainment and nearby neighborhood merchants for supplies, the latter supplemented by online shopping-and-shipping (whose large economies of scale somewhat counterbalance higher fuel prices). This United States' cultural shift end result will largely mimic one that's already largely in place in Europe, where land is comparatively scarce and high fuel prices are old news; such a setup is to some degree already also the norm in parts of the U.S. East Coast. In highway-rich California, on the other hand, the infrastructure revamp will trigger substantially larger socio-seismic waves.

Large cities, with high population densities and already-established public transit, will feel the impact substantially less than more rural climes (which, I'll note, constitute on an aggregate basis a substantial percentage of the total U.S. population). But regardless...well, take a look at last weekend's experience again. It's my contention that most of the folks not clogging the freeways this year chose to stay home instead of spending the July 4^th holidays with family and friends. As gas prices continue to climb, the tendency to cocoon will further increase. What will happen to the social network of this country when we're 'pressing the flesh' less and less? And how will our relationship with the rest of the world evolve when, because high costs discourage us from traveling, we only experience it through our televisions?

Telephone calls, emails and text messages are feeble surrogates for face-to-face interaction. Videoconferencing somewhat improves on the virtual experience, and inevitable broadband improvements in the years to come will improve the videoconferencing experience, but it's still not the same as 'meatspace'. And my opinions of Second Life and its ilk are well documented at this point. Optimistically, I hope that (as in the past), crisis will spur human creativity and there'll be some fundamental breakthrough to solve our energy problems in a Gaia-cognizant manner; nuclear fusion, perhaps, or cost-effective solar cells (in conjunction with high-efficiency, inexpensive batteries to store collected energy for when the sun doesn't shine). Or maybe we'll more completely harness our wind, water and geothermal natural resources, though they're only available in certain areas of the country, and therefore will require high-efficiency distribution schemes to transport the power from where it's generated to where it's consumed.

But cynically, I see us (befitting our short-term-thinking Achilles' Heel as a species) continuing down the same road we're already traveling; tapping into ever-smaller and more environmentally damaging petroleum reserves, and supplementing them with this country's abundant but even 'dirtier' coal resources. And, as the price of energy continues to rise, we'll grow increasingly anti-social...with ominous consequences for our future. What are your thoughts on the admittedly disturbing subject I've raised, folks?

p.s...ironically, as I was mentally formulating the foundations of this post on Monday night, I perused the August issue of Discover Magazine. Inside were two related pieces which I commend to your attention (unfortunately, neither is yet available on the website as I type these words):

• An article entitled 'Our Invisible Energy', and
• A book review of 'Loneliness: Human Nature and the Need for Social Connection'

p.s....for another (and similar...I swear, we didn't coordinate our efforts!) perspective on current events, check out Ron's recent writeup.