Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Blu-ray might have won, but is there a prize?


Since the news about Warner came down last week indicating that the movie studio would only support Blu-ray high-definition technology going forward, I’ve meant to post this message. I was further prompted today when fellow EDN blogger Brain Dipert posted “CES: Blu-ray, my my, is HD DVD gonna die?” on the topic. As Brian points out, the Warner support likely means a win finally for the Blu-ray camp. But read the complete post and Brian also points out that the win came at substantial costs. Indeed I question whether there is really a prize to be had this time around and if there was a chance to capture a prize in the form of profits that chance has passed Sony by.

 

Every time I blast Sony I admit that the latest is one in a series of rants. In my year-end Holiday column for EDN’s print edition, “Holiday wishes target technological harmony,” I recounted Sony’s battle to establish a succession of their own standards in the DVD space. I’ll always believe they did so seeking a royalty stream as opposed to pursuing a truly superior technology. Granted Blu-ray is as Brian points out a bigger leap than HD-DVD, but either would have sufficed. Instead we’ve been in a holding pattern where neither has gained a huge installed base.

 

ADVERTISEMENT
This time Sony will not recoup their investment in terms of sales of their own equipment or movies, or through royalties despite their apparent win. The mainstream audience is moving at an alarming rate toward online delivery of even HD content. I don’t believe the typical consumer will replicate their DVD libraries with Blu-ray titles, instead moving to online access sooner rather than later.

 

In fact, the Sony led delay first of rewritable DVD technology and then HD DVD technologies have both been disastrous for Sony profits. The rewritable DVD market was stymied long enough that a better technology in the form of DVRs usurped the DVD Recorder market. The same will happen in the HD DVD segment with a combination of cached DVR content and real-time delivery.

 

Now Brian also points out that I broke down and allowed a PS3 into my home at Christmas. My son won me over although I’m still bitter over the fact that Sony can’t include an HDMI or component video in the box with a $500 product – especially since the component video cable is a Sony proprietary cable. I guess when you are bleeding dollars from poor technology choices you have to further gouge the consumer. As I’ve said many times, I was once among Sony’s most loyal customers. I wouldn’t mind returning to the fold but the PS3 isn’t a step in the right direction despite the fact that they got my gift-giving business.

 

I do, however, have what I think might be a positive development at Sony to post about soon.



<< Back | Print
© Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.