Thursday, September 4, 2008

AMD, speak now or forever lose your piece of the MPU market


It’s Q3 -- the tail end of the quarter, in fact -- and AMD has yet to make a firm statement on its manufacturing plans. While Hector Ruiz said he would be “the most disappointed man on Earth” if AMD hadn’t shared plans for its manufacturing strategy by the end of the year, many industry watchers and participants are expecting news on the chip maker’s plans by the end of this quarter and their wariness of the company is growing as each silent week passes.

Perhaps the headline on this blog post could have been: “AMD, speak now and be split into pieces.” More and more analysts are predicting the breakup of AMD into two entities, one design and one manufacturing, with the most recent including some sound processing benefits in his report (see, “AMD fab-lite strategy announcement in 2 weeks, analyst says”).

As this blog has stated before, if AMD plays its cards right with manufacturing, it could have the finances to return as a strong challenger to Intel. If not, then it’s just a matter of time until the game is over for the debt-ridden company.

And manufacturing is looking to be the final ingredient in AMD’s financial recovery medicine. To the company’s credit, it has made some tough choices in the past nine months to regain its financial footing and move toward the profitability it promised by the end of the September quarter. It tackled the needed management changes (pop Hector out of the power position and pop in Dirk Meyers). It cut headcount substantially to lower expenses (10% of its employees will have been handed pink slips by the end of Q3). And, instead of clutching to the idea that it can be a everything to everyone company, AMD is selling off its lackluster consumer units to companies better suited to drive those markets and is gaining cash infusions in doing so (like Broadcom’s near $193 million buy of AMD’s digital TV unit, which, by the way, also lowered AMD’s headcount by 530 employees).

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Note that we’re discussing a financial recovery here. The impact of the above choices on the company’s ability to innovate is a whole different animal, one that might come back to bite AMD at a later date.

Meanwhile, all eyes will be on AMD in the coming weeks to see if real men spin off their fabs and, if they do, how TSMC, UMC, Chartered, and the rest of the foundry world react to a separate AMD-groomed manufacturing operation.

How would you react to such a split? Share your opinion below.

--Suzanne Deffree, Managing Editor, News



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