I got an invite to a panel held by On Semiconductor regarding the ways to reduce energy demands in automobiles. They also had a presentation by Strategy Analytics. I was glad to see a big-time high-tone consulting firm that seemed to share my skepticism on the viability of fully-electric cars. Ian Riches pointed out that they see fully electric cars as having “negligible” market penetration, at least for the next 5 years. They are figuring at most 230k vehicles total on a US market of well over 11 million and that is 5 or 10 years down the road. It was also pointed out that with gasoline under 8 bucks a gallon, you never recover the added cost of a hybrid. People do not buy hybrids or electric vehicles to save resources; they do it to exhibit and promote a lifestyle and value system. Nothing wrong with that, it is just what Escalade drivers are doing, just don’t think either has a moral superiority. What was interesting, in an analog sort of way, is that what will have a big impact on the car market is micro-hybrids, where the engine stops when the car stops. Micro-hybrids are projected to be the primary hybrid market share in the future. By turning off the engine when the car stops, you get great mileage improvement in the government mileage drive cycles and you are not loading the car with 1000 pounds of batteries.

Robert Klosterboer, a senior VP at On Semi, pointed out a scary revelation: All the safety and electronic gizmos in a car draw enough power to reduce the fuel economy. He said that reducing the carbon footprint will drive a lot of options, and that if there are caps on the CO2 a car can give off, you may not be able to get all the option you want. I asked if the government might exempt safety features from CAFE (corporate average fuel economy) and he said that there was no way that could happen— the car makers will have to hit the mileage standards. He pointed out that technology will have to deliver energy efficiency in the electronic systems, in order to help improve fuel economy. One attendee stated that LED headlights can improve fuel economy as much as taking 400 pounds out of the car. That seems a little optimistic, but there was an Audi presentation I will write about where the lighting power can go from 618 watts to 168 watts with future LED lighting advances. That might work out to a single mpg but I think 400 pounds would have a much bigger effect unless it was from a tank that weighed 10k pounds. Another attendee pointed out that automatic transmission also emit less CO2 in government drive cycles so regulation may eliminate manual transmissions. I think manual transmissions are a little silly so you won’t see me crying about that, but is it a pretty stupid unintended consequence of this crazy CO2 phobia we are suffering.

Robert pointed out that the lower energy use is driving the application of switching regulators and entertainment systems (ie radios) that are designed as a holistic module with power management chips that minimize the quiescent current in all conditions. This is good news for semiconductor companies and I am always in favor of conserving energy. Let’s see if the auto business can rise to the challenge in the next five years, it is good thing they have the semiconductor companies to help them out.