By now I know that most of you have read the lead story coming out of the IMAPS Device Packaging Conference (DPC) that was posted on Semiconductor.net this past Thursday. Being your 3D IC blogger, and being at a conference with three days of parallel sessions on 3D IC business and technology, you probably expected I’d be pumping up 3D IC, but that was not possible in light of Bill McClean’s rah-rah economic recovery presentation to the IMAPS Global Business Council. There were mainly packaging professionals in marketing, sales and business development in attendance, but they clearly understood that their market does not come back till the chip market comes back and the chip market does not come back till the overall economy rebounds.

Since this is my blog and not a news story, I get to now give you my opinion. I am not at all sure that the bottom is coming before July 2009 and good times will be here for all of us by 2010 and 2011. What I can tell you is that I have always believed that you must understand the past to understand the future, as it unfolds, and IC Insights certainly has a vast databank on past history. I thought I would post a few more of the slides that Bill used to justify his position.

In the first slide shown below, we can compare the 2001 recession to the one we are currently in. We see that while the impact on the GDP is expected to be much more severe (ZERO growth now vs 1.7% then), the impact on the semi industry is expected to be halved (16% now vs 32% then) . If this comes true, this is a good thing.

In the second slide, we see the data from which Bill derives his predictions that the recovery will be strong in 2010 and 2011. At least in the last three recessions growth coming out of them has been 20 ±40% in the two years following. Whenever the current one ends, you want to be ready to supply because that’s when the money will be made.

The next slide says the same thing using a “pin wheel” slide to show how history does repeat itself.

Lastly, the slide below shows the projections for bellwether TSMC. I agree with the premise that if things are turning around we will certainly see it at the foundries. Bill’s numbers indicate that TSMC has in fact already bottomed and we will see things rebounding as second-quarter results are posted.

Whether you fully believe the timing or not, you certainly must tip your hat to IC Insights for being willing to put themselves out there with these predictions. Whether they are right or wrong — time will tell!

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